Research On City Air Quality Prediction Based On Data Mining Method

With the continuous improvement of my country’s economic development and modernization level,all walks of life are pursuing the greatest economic benefits.However,at the same time,more and more waste gas pollutants are produced in production and life,and many pollutants are permeated in the air.It will not dissipate for a long time.The air quality in our country has dropped sharply,and the air pollution has become more and more serious.This has not only caused serious consequences for our country’s production and development,but also endangered the physical and mental health of residents.Pollutants are inhaled and accumulated in the body,causing respiratory diseases and heart disease One of the main causes of illness.The current air pollution situation in my country needs to be solved urgently,and the current air quality monitoring system summarizes the day’s AQI index and the average concentration of six pollutants based on real-time monitoring data.Therefore,it has certain aftereffects and cannot provide timely warnings.,To guide the government and residents to take effective precautionary measures.Based on the above-mentioned current situation of air quality in cities in my country,this article focuses on the air quality status of Jinan City,and selects the air quality related data of Jinan City from January 1,2016 to December 31,2019,from the perspective of overall seasonal analysis and forecasting,Carry out a detailed and in-depth study on the air quality in Jinan.First of all,from a macro perspective,through descriptive statistical analysis,the development trend of the overall air quality in Jinan City during the past four years is visually presented in the form of graphs,and it is found that it is generally low in the middle and gentle,with little change.The trend is high and steep,with large changes.Based on the conclusions obtained,a systematic cluster analysis method is further adopted,and the seasonal characteristics of its development and changes are analyzed and studied based on four different classification criteria.By dividing different categories,it is obtained that the winter（January,December）is air pollution.The most severe season is summer（June）.This result has an important relationship with human activities.In winter,coal-fired heating,straw burning,fireworks and firecrackers are set off;in summer,the high-frequency use of household air conditioners is the main cause of air pollution.Secondly,because the current AQI calculation method is relatively cumbersome,this article aims to study the six major air pollutants that affect the AQI level of the air quality index by drawing the CART decision tree model and the random forest model,and construct a higher accuracy rate The classification rule model for the classification of AQI index levels.Through this classification rule,the AQI index level can be directly judged based on the concentration of each pollutant,which simplifies the classification steps,and also obtains the main pollutant components that affect air quality.That is,PM2.5,O ₃＿8h and PM10 are important indicators that affect the AQI classification of the air quality index,and provide theoretical support for the final constructive opinions.Finally,two methods are adopted to realize the short-term prediction of Jinan’s air quality index AQI.One is to directly construct a time series ARIMA model on it.The prediction result of this method is relatively stable,and the relative error is not large,so effective prediction can be made;By constructing a prediction model for the three main pollutant indicators of PM2.5,O ₃＿8h and PM10,the specific prediction value of AQI is calculated by applying the calculation formula of the AQI index according to the prediction value.The prediction result of this method is not much different from the first method,and the process is slightly It’s a little more cumbersome,but the main pollutant composition of the day can be obtained.Therefore,the two methods can be organically combined,and the appropriate method can be selected according to the forecast demand to carry out short-term forecasting and analysis of urban air quality,and finally realize the effective short-term forecast of the specific value of the AQI index and the main pollutant components,and overcome the after-effects of the current monitoring system.Provide effective early warning to promote the Jinan Municipal Government to implement effective measures in a timely manner to improve the urban air quality of Jinan,and strive to create a healthy and sustainable living environment for the residents of the city.