Analysis Of The Influencing Factors And Forecast Of Carbon Emissions Trading Price In China

Carbon trading is not only a matter of economy,energy and environment,but also related to the political game among countries.The most important factor in the carbon trading market is the trading price of carbon emission rights,which directly affects the willingness and cost of emission reduction of enterprises,and then affects the overall emission reduction effect and climate change of a country.At present,although China has officially launched the national carbon emission trading market system,due to the initial stage of development,the pilot markets of carbon emission trading have shown great differences in development trends.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the differences between China’s carbon trading pilot markets and foreign carbon markets.Among the eight major carbon trading markets in our country,the four largest trading markets are Beijing,Hubei,Guangdong,and Shenzhen pilot markets.This article takes these four pilot markets as the research object and selects energy prices,financial market factors,macroeconomics,foreign carbon markets,government policy,extreme temperature,etc.twelve potential impact factors,using NA-MEND and VEC models to analyze the influencing factors of carbon price.In addition,seven methods such as MEMD-LSTM are used to compare the accuracy and effects of carbon price prediction models,and to explore models that are more suitable for predicting carbon price trends.Studies have shown that the same influencing factor may have different effects on different carbon market prices in the same time period.In general,the four major pilot markets have been positively affected by their historical transaction prices in the long term.EUA prices have a positive impact on carbon prices in the pilot markets in Beijing and Hubei in various periods,but have no significant impact on carbon prices in the pilot markets in Guangdong and Shenzhen.Extreme temperatures will mainly have a positive impact on the carbon price of each pilot market in the short and medium term,and will no longer be significant in the long term;the Beijing pilot market is affected by more influencing factors than other pilot markets,and has a higher degree of marketization.The effect of carbon prices is affected by the demand side is greater than the supply side.Compared with the EU emissions trading market,my country’s carbon emissions trading pilot market has a lower degree of marketization of carbon prices and weaker links with relevant markets.Therefore,this paper recommends that my country’s carbon emissions trading market participants and regulators should form a rational expectation of carbon prices in long-term,and pay attention to the International Market EUA and CER prices,extreme temperatures,and the release of government policies,and the influencing factors of carbon prices are included in the carbon price prediction model,using experience modal decomposition and mixed model of neural network to improve carbon price prediction accuracy.