| With the constant implementation of the national "Belt and Road Initiative" as well as other strategies for developments,the economy along the Yangtze river has been booming in a high speed,bringing unprecedented development opportunities for inland river shipping.Local governments have reached a consensus of "Revitalize the city by port".Thus the construction of transportation infrastructure continues to be enhanced and the traffic flow of inland river shipping has been increasing year by year.To meet the demands of regional economic diversification’s developments,the trends of improving the inland river shipping transport efficiency and large-scale,rapid,intensive and diversified operation of vessels are apparent.Along with the development process of modernization,people tends to have higher-level requirements on working environment and quality of life,making it more frequent to have cultural and substance exchanges.There are more and more bridges which are newly built in urban areas along the Yangtze river,changing the navigation environment of ships in the bridge region to a certain degree,occurring the accidents of the collisions between ships and bridges from time to time.Considering the collision accidents between ships and bridges have serious social implications which may lead to the consequences of ship damage,people death,environmental pollution and bridge collapse,etc.,the research on the collisions between ships and bridges have always been a concern of industry experts,scientific and technological workers.Automatic Ship Identification System(AIS)is able to offer real-time dynamic and static information of ships to the relevant departments such as ship dimensions,ship speed,course,longitude and latitude of the ship.AIS plays an significant role in realtime monitoring and management of ship,standardizing ship navigation behavior as well as ensuring water traffic order and maintaining water traffic safety.AIS back-end database is an important resource to undertake corresponding academic research.With the completion of Chinese AIS system in all aspects,AIS makes it more convenient to finish the data collection.This paper has taken a large number of domestic and foreign literatures on shipbridge collision as reference,preprocessing AIS data and separating the ship trajectory by KNN classification based on AIS data of Sutong Yangtze River Highway Bridge water area.According to the ship’s navigation characteristics,we obtain the eigenvalues distribution such as ship speed,ship scale and yaw angle.Considering the environmental factors in ship navigation,environmental impact factors and independent variables yaw angle are added to AASHTO model,then an optimization model for calculating ship-bridge collision probability based on AASHTO model is proposed.With the repeated experiments on yaw angle that has obvious influence on yaw probability as a variable,and a scheme for visualizing ship-bridge collision risk in Sutong Yangtze River Highway Bridge water area in the form of thermal diagram is proposed.Provide reference for improving the active anti-collision ability of the existing bridges,reducing the collision accidents of the ships and bridges,and optimizing the design scheme and layout of the new bridges.. |