Research On High Tech Enterprise Value Evaluation Based On Real Option Method

A new wave of scientific and technological revolution is sweeping the world,and biotechnology,new energy,new materials and other fields are facing new industrial changes.Under this background,high-tech enterprises will develop rapidly.In the background of new technological development,high-tech enterprises will certainly face new risks and opportunities,and their growth will also usher in a large amount of capital investment.At this time,accurate value assessment of high-tech enterprises is particularly important.Traditional value assessment methods,such as the discounted cash flow method,limit the understanding of enterprise value assessment to the existing value of the enterprise,which is suitable for high-tech enterprises in a static environment.For the uncertainty of future investment decisions and the value generated by flexible management of enterprises,traditional evaluation methods show some disadvantages.With the development of option theory,new ideas and methods have been developed to evaluate the value of scientific and rational investment decisions made by high-tech enterprises in uncertain environment.Based on the research of scholars,this paper summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the three traditional evaluation methods in the valuation of high-tech enterprises,and determines the method of the discounted cash flow method combined with the real option model to evaluate hightech enterprises.At the same time,the selection of parameters in the evaluation model of real option method is expounded,and the gray prediction model is used to measure the volatility of real option.A case study was carried out by selecting a high-tech enterprise,Guanhao Biotech.According to the annual report data of crown’s son biological respectively using discounted cash flow method and the BS option pricing model to evaluate enterprise existing asset value and option value evaluation and assessment results and discounted cash flow evaluation,comparing the high technology enterprise value results found that the real option method of evaluation results more close to the actual market situation.At the same time,in the BS option formula,the grey prediction method is used to predict the volatility of real options,and compared with the prediction results of the historical volatility method,the grey prediction method is more accurate.This paper has 3 figures,22 tables and 77 references.