| The ecological environment is the basis of human existence and social and economic development.The quality of ecological environment directly affects the sustainable development of a region.Scientific and effective regional ecological environment assessment is of great significance to the protection of regional ecological environment and the promotion of green sustainable development.Bosten Lake Basin is located in the arid region of central Asia,which is a sensitive and fragile zone of ecological environment change,and also an important part of Tarim River Basin,and plays an important role in the social and economic development of southern Xinjiang.In order to explore the status of ecological and environmental changes in the Bosten Lake Basin,this paper takes the Bosten Lake Basin as the study area.Based on remote sensing data and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),this paper comprehensively evaluates the ecological environment from 2000 to 2018,analyzes the driving forces of changes,and puts forward targeted suggestions for ecological and environmental protection in the study area from various aspects.Land use is the most direct manifestation of human’s transformation of regional ecological environment.Therefore,this paper uses the Future Land Use Simulatio(FLUS)model to predict the change of land use types in the Bosten Lake Basin in 2026,and puts forward corresponding suggestions accordingly.The main work and achievements of this paper are as follows:(1)The land use types in the study area can be divided into six types:cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water area,construction land and other land use.Grassland and other land use are the main land use types.Grassland occupies the largest proportion among several land use types,with an average proportion of 39.44%.Grassland is distributed everywhere except in the eastern part of the basin.Water area and construction land account for less than 5%of the total land area,especially the area of construction land accounts for less than 0.1%,which also fully shows that Xinjiang has long been a large area sparsely populated,rich geographical features.From 2000 to2018,grassland,woodland and construction land showed an overall increasing trend,and the increase of woodland was 629.72km~2 at most.The area of arable land,water area and other land showed a decreasing trend.The decrease of other land was388.01km~2 at most,followed by that of arable land,which was 263.42km~2.The area of water area showed a decreasing trend after 2000,which was 176.15km~2.(2)According to the Classification and Grading Standards of Soil Erosion(SL190-2007),the vegetation coverage in the study area is divided.The high vegetation coverage in the study area is mainly distributed in woodland and grassland in Bayingoleng Township and Bayinwulu Township in the west of Hejing County.In addition,it is located in the small lake reeds area in the southwest of Bosten Lake.This is a lakeside wetland,so the vegetation coverage here is also high.The proportion of other land in the study area is nearly 30%,so the maximum proportion of low vegetation coverage in the study area is more than 40%.The spatial distribution of soil erosion in the study area was obtained by superposition of slope and vegetation coverage in the study area.During the study period,the area of light erosion increased by the most,with an increase of 743.46km~2,accounting for 39.06%from 37.68%,while the area of moderate erosion decreased by the most,with a decrease of 737.27km~2.(3)The ecological environment quality of the Bosten Lake basin is generally above the"average"level.The ecological environment quality corresponding to the vegetation coverage area in the western part of the basin is also good.The Bosten Lake is located in Bohu County,so the water resources in Bohu Country are relatively abundant,and the ecological environment is good.The low ecological environment is mainly distributed in the southern mountainous area of Hejing County and the surrounding areas of Hejing County.There are also a small number of distribution in Heshuo County.From 2000 to 2018,the area with“good”ecological environment has increased by 3,042.57 km~2,and its share has increased from 21.14%to 26.83%.The area with“bad”ecological environment has decreased by 565.39 km~2,and its share has dropped to 2.52%,indicating that the ecological environment in the Bosten Lake basin from 2000 to 2018 has improved significantly,and the overall trend is getting better.(4)This paper selects 13 factors as the driving factors of land use change,and uses Logistic to analyze the land use and driving factors in the study area,introduces the driving factors into the FLUS model and sets relevant parameters.Based on the land use data in 2010,the land use distribution in 2018 is simulated.The Kappa coefficient is equal to 0.958,which met the accuracy requirements.and then the land use in the study area in 2026 was simulated.The simulation results of the land use in 2026 showed that:The area of arable land,forest land and construction land has increased.Population increase and urbanization expansion have increased the area of arable land and construction land,but it has also led to an increase in industrial,agricultural and domestic water consumption,which reduced the water area in the study area.With the implementation of ecological environmental protection policies,such as returning farmland to forest,the area of forestland also increased,but the increase was not very large.Because people reclaimed a large number of unused land as farmland,the area of other land was relatively reduced.At the same time,according to the simulation results,the future ecological environment of Bosten Lake basin is analyzed,and the corresponding protective measures are proposed. |
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