| Wetland is a unique ecosystem formed by the interaction between land and water.It is one of the most important ecological environments on the earth and is known as the"cradle of life".The Baiyangdian Wetland is the largest freshwater lake in the North China Plain and is known as the"Kidney of North China".This paper takes the Baiyangdian Wetland as the research area to carry out the analysis of the driving force of the wetland evolution and the study of its change trend:Using remote sensing and geographic information system technology,object-oriented classification methods are used to extract information from the 7 phases of remote sensing data in the study area from1987 to 2018.Analyze the temporal and spatial changes of Baiyangdian Wetland through the establishment of a transfer matrix and a dynamic model.Combining meteorological data,Baoding City Statistical Yearbook and other relevant data,from both natural and social factors,the principal component analysis method is applied to quantitatively analyze the main driving forces of the Baiyangdian Wetland change.Finally,the non-equidistant GM(1,1)model is used to predict the change trend of the Baiyangdian Wetland in the next 10 years,and puts forward suggestions on wetland protection and restoration.The specific conclusions are as follows:(1)According to the classification of wetlands in the"Wetland Convention"and Google Earth high-resolution images,combined with the purpose of this study and the actual situation of the Baiyangdian Wetland,the study area is divided into wetlands and non-wetlands.Wetlands include water and plants,and non-wetlands include cultivated land and construction land.(2)The Baiyangdian Wetland information was extracted by a classification method combining object-oriented and visual interpretation,and the accuracy of the seven images after the classification of the wetland was evaluated.The results showed that the Kappa coefficients and overall accuracy are both greater than 80%,which met the needs of research.(3)Analyze the characteristics of Baiyangdian Wetland area and space-time changes using the transfer matrix and dynamic method:the area of Baiyangdian Wetland showed an increase-decrease-increasing-steady trend from 1987 to2018,and the wetland type changed to non-wetland type mainly distributed in the western,northeast and southern part of the study area;the conversion of non-wetland types to wetland types is mainly distributed in the southern,central and a few western regions of the study area.From 1987 to 2018,the area of Baiyangdian Wetland increased in the proportion of land types:cultivated land>plants>construction land>water.The comprehensive land use dynamics of Baiyangdian Wetland from 1987 to 2018 was 0.9%,indicating that the land use types of Baiyangdian Wetland changed relatively smoothly during this period.(4)The analysis of the driving forces of the Baiyangdian Wetland change shows that population factors,economic factors,hydrological and meteorological factors are the main driving forces that affect the change of the Baiyangdian Wetland area.Among them,social factors have a greater impact on the evolution of the wetland than natural factors.Policy factors are alleviated the decreasing trend of Baiyangdian Wetland area in a certain extent.(5)Using the non-equidistant GM(1,1)model to predict the change trend of Baiyangdian Wetland.The results showed that the predicted area of Baiyangdian Wetland was gradually increasing.The predicted area of wetland increased from205.69km~2 in 2018 to 224.17 km~2 in 2023.By 2028,it will be 236.95 km~2;In the next ten years,the construction land,the plants and water in the study area will show an increasing trend,and the cultivated land and construction land will show a decreasing trend.The development trend of the forecast model in this paper is consistent with the goals of regional planning requirements,and provides a reference for the ecological protection and restoration of the Baiyangdian Wetland. |
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