Research On The Behavior Of Three Participants In Carbon Emission Reduction Based On Evolutionary Game

With the continuous increase in carbon emissions,the average global surface temperature is expected to rise by 1.1-6.4°C in the 21 st century,and my country’s climate change is roughly in line with the global trend.Over the years,China’s coastal sea level and temperature have continued to rise,causing serious damage to agriculture and animal husbandry,water resources,coastal zones,forests and other natural systems.If greenhouse gas emissions are allowed,it will cause irreversible disasters to mankind.Therefore,carbon emission reduction has become a global common activity.In order to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction,the Chinese government has promised to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60%-65% by 2030 compared to2005.Through efforts during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period,the total energy consumption per unit of GDP across the country has been reduced by 18.4%;During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period,as of the end of 2019,my country’s carbon intensity was adjusted up and down by about 48.1% based on 2005,and the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy was reduced to 15.3%,achieving my country’s external 2020 target earlier.In recent years,carbon emission reduction indicators have also been included as an important assessment indicator for the development of my country’s economic quality,and have become an unavoidable key task for the government and enterprises.However,carbon emission reduction work has a long way to go.In order to improve environmental quality and accelerate the implementation of ecological environmental protection projects,the government advocates involving more social capital.Therefore,a third-party environmental governance model oriented by "marketization,specialization,and industrialization" began to emerge and contribute to my country’s environmental pollution control.At present,third-party governance is divided into two modes:government purchase and enterprise purchase.This article takes enterprise purchase as an example.First,review the existing literature on third-party environmental governance,carbon emission reduction system,evolutionary game and carbon emission reduction activities.On this basis,combining with the latest tax policies,the third party environmental service providers are included into the game model,and the payment cost and risk sharing ratio factors are introduced to construct the revenue matrix of the government,environmental service providers and polluters.Solve the three-party replication dynamic equation according to the income matrix,and then obtain the equilibrium point,and study the carbon emission reduction game behavior of the three.Finally,MATLAB software is used to simulate and analyze the impact of supervision costs,payment fees,reward amounts,tax policies,emission reduction costs,and risk sharing ratios on the players of the game.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The initial probability values of the government,environmental service providers,and pollutant companies will all have an impact on the other two entities;(2)The cost of strict supervision and the amount of incentives are negatively correlated with the proportion of government supervision,and the amount of taxation is positively correlated with the proportion of government’s strict supervision;(3)The company’s payment and rewards are positively correlated with the percentage of environmental service providers’ efforts,and the risk sharing ratio has little impact on environmental service providers;(4)The cost of carbon abatement is negatively correlated with the proportion of low-carbon products produced by polluting companies;the amount of incentives is positively correlated with the production of low-carbon products by polluting companies;the amount of tax can promote the development of corporate emission reduction work;the risk sharing ratio has almost no impact on the behavior of polluting companies.