Short-term Effects Of Meteorological Factors On Hand,Foot And Mouth Disease Among Children In Shenyang

Objectives: In this study,we collected the data of hand,foot and mouth disease cases(HFMD)and meteorological factors from 2010 to 2019 in Shenyang,and established a distribution lag non-linear model to explore the non-linear lag relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD,and explore the possible influencing factors and susceptible population of HFMD,so as to provide reference for the establishment of a targeted early warning system.Methods: The data on daily HFMD cases from 2010 to 2019 in Shenyang were collected from Shenyang Center for Disease Control,and meteorological factors data in the same period were collected from the national meteorological data sharing center.(http://www.cma.gov.cn)The effects of meteorological factors on HFMD was evaluated by distributed lag non-linear model.The impact of extreme weather is also quantified by comparing the 90 th or 10 th percentiles of meteorological variables to the median.The population was stratified by gender and age to further explore the short-term effects of the above factors.Results:(1)There was a non-linear lag relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD.(2)Extremely high temperature as 24.6°C,high atmospheric pressure as 1023 h Pa,high relative humidity as 84% and high wind speed as 3.5 m/s increased the risk of HFMD incidence,wih the maximum RR values: 2.49(95%CI: 2.08,2.97),1.26(95%CI:1.06,1.50),1.29(95%CI: 1.19,1.40)and 1.19(95%CI: 1.10,1.30)at 0-14 lag days,respectively.(3)At the 0-14 lag days,the minimum RR of extremely low temperature as-10.7°C was 0.86(95%CI: 0.80,0.92),and the minimum RR of extremely low atmospheric pressure as 998 h Pa was0.86(95%CI:0.80-0.92)and the minimum RR of extremely low wind speed as 1.1 m/s was 0.81(95%CI: 0.75,0.87),of which played an important protective role on the incidence of HFMD.(4)In stratified studies,we fond that male children are more susceptible to extreme temperature and extremely high relative humidity than female children.Children aged 3-6 years appeared to be more sensitive than other age groups to extreme atmospheric pressure,extremely high humidity and high wind speed.In addition,childen aged<1 year were the most susceptible group to extremely high temperature.Conclusions:(1)There is a non-linear lag relationship between meteorological factors and daily HFMD cases.(2)Extremely high temperature,high atmospheric pressure,high relative humidity and high wind speed increase the risk of HFMD.Extremely low temperature,low atmospheric pressure and low wind speed have protective effects on the incidence of HFMD in children.(3)Extreme temperature and high relative humidity have the greatest impact on male children,extreme atmospheric pressure,extreme relative humidity and high wind speed have the greatest impact on children aged 3-6 years,and extremely high temperature has the greatest impact on children under 1 year old.