Research On Susceptibility Of Spacecraft To Impact Of Disintegrated Debris In The Early Stage Of Evolution

In recent years,with the accelerating pace of human space exploration,the number of spacecraft in orbit is increasing,and the incidents of spacecraft disintegration are also increasing.A large amount of debris produced by a break-up event is more likely to collide with a nearby spacecraft in the early stages of evolution.After the collision between the debris and the spacecraft,the spacecraft may fail or even disintegrate,which poses a great threat to the spacecraft in orbit.After long-term evolution,the distribution law of disintegrated fragments is consistent with the general distribution law of space debris.When evaluating the risk of collision between space debris and spacecraft in general,the calculation results of space environment engineering model can be used as the input of risk assessment.However,in the early stage of evolution,the distribution law of disintegrated debris is quite different from that of general space debris.The existing space debris environmental engineering models are no longer applicable to this problem,and there are few studies on impact risk assessment of disintegrated debris in the early stage of evolution.Therefore,the study of the disintegrated fragments in the early evolution period has certain academic value and engineering guiding significance for the impact sensitivity of spacecraft.Aiming at the relative distance between the disintegrated debris and the spacecraft,the size and velocity increment of each disintegrated debris were calculated by the standard disintegration model.Combined with the position and velocity information of the disintegrated spacecraft at the time of disintegration,the initial orbit of each disintegrated debris was determined.Based on the relative motion dynamics model,the relative posit ion and orbit errors of each disintegrated debris and the spacecraft were calculated,and the generation and error evolution models of the disintegrated debris were established.Based on the Gaussian probability distribution,a single impact sensitivity assessment method for two space targets is proposed to assess the impact risk of disintegrated debris on spacecraft in the early stage of evolution.On this basis,according to the probability relationship of single impact sensitivity of disintegrated fragments,the calculation method of impact sensitivity of disintegrated fragments is given.Based on the impact sensitivity model of disintegrated debris,the effects of the time-varying characteristics of the impact sensitivity of disintegrated debris,the number of spacecraft orbit roots and the Angle of disintegrated debris generation on the impact sensitivity of disintegrated debris were investigated,and the relevant laws were summarized.The results show that the duration of evolution,the number of spacecraft orbit roots and the Angle of fragmentation have great effects on the impact sensitivity of fragmentation.In summary,the impact sensitivity assessment model of disintegrating fragments was established in this paper,and the effects of different facto rs on the impact sensitivity of disintegrating fragments were studied.The above results solve the risk assessment problem of spacecraft collision caused by disintegrating debris in the early stage of evolution and further improve the survivability assessment method of spacecraft.