The Impact And Prediction Of China’s Urbanization And Financial Development On Carbon Emissions

China’s fourteenth five year plan points out that it will achieve the peak of carbon by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,as the largest developing country in the world and the country with the largest carbon emission,how to balance the task of economic development and carbon emission reduction is an important issue.Since more than 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s urbanization and financial development have made remarkable achievements.The urbanization rate has increased from 31.9%in 1997 to 60.6%in 2019,nearly doubling.The financial development measured by the balance of deposits and loans of financial institutions has also increased from 15730.686 billion yuan in 1997 to 345990.853 billion yuan in 2019,an increase of 21%,compared with developed countries,China’s urbanization rate and financial development level are still relatively low.It is the basic trend to continuously promote the process of urbanization and financial development.Then,how does urbanization and financial development affect carbon dioxide emissions?What is the future trend of China’s carbon dioxide emissions?In order to answer these questions,based on STIRPAT model,this paper brings urbanization,financial development and carbon dioxide emissions into a unified research framework,empirically tests the impact of urbanization and financial development on carbon dioxide emissions,and then uses grey GM(1,1)to predict the future trend of carbon emissions in China.According to the research content of this paper,we get the following conclusions:Firstly,there is a positive correlation between the carbon dioxide emissions of China’s provinces,and the spatial concentration is "H-H" and "L-L";Secondly,the direct effect of urbanization is positive,while the spatial spillover effect is negative,and the spatial spillover effect is greater than the direct effect;Thirdly,the direct and indirect effects of financial development are both positive,and the spatial spillover effect is 3.7 times of the direct effect.Financial development promotes regional carbon dioxide emissions;Finally,according to the grey GM(1,1)prediction results,China’s urbanization level and financial development level will increase significantly in 2030.Without any measures,China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 7.81×103 million tons.In order to achieve the peak of carbon,we should make good use of the spatial spillover effect of urbanization development.Combined with our research results,we put forward policy suggestions for China’s further development.In the process of urbanization,we should pay attention to regional cooperation.At the same time,in the process of financial development,we should formulate a more standardized system,take enterprise environmental performance as an important consideration of financing,and further develop the carbon emission trading market,so as to realize the highquality development of China’s economy.