| Environmental pollution has become one of the serious ecological problems facing the international community.The discharge of a large number of wastes in the production process not only causes irreversible damage to the natural ecology,but also seriously threatens human health and development.At the same time,there are still a large number of poor people in the world.In order to get rid of the current situation of underdevelopment,most of the developing countries at the middle and low end of the global industrial chain can only rely on the extensive development model which will produce a lot of pollution to develop their economy.As a result,most developing countries are faced with the dilemma of environmental protection and economic growth.As the largest developing country in the world,China has been facing increasingly severe environmental protection situation with rapid economic growth since the reform and opening up.At the same time,in many international affairs,the "China plan" with China’s wisdom often becomes the best plan for many developing countries when facing challenges.Therefore,putting forward the "China plan" with Chinese characteristics is of great practical significance to solve the "dilemma" of environmental protection and development in many developing countries."Porter Hypothesis" seems to put forward a solution to the dilemma,pointing out that appropriate environmental regulation can force technological innovation of enterprises,reduce pollution and stimulate economic development.However,how developing countries should adopt appropriate environmental regulation policies and whether developing countries can withstand the pain of environmental regulation are two more realistic problems.First of all,most of the developing countries have a strong "rigidity" in their pollution emissions in the production process.In fact,developing countries often have a strong path dependence.If the government blindly improves the intensity of environmental regulation in order to achieve the goal of minimizing pollution,it will only lead to the slowdown of economic growth and the loss of social welfare in the short term.Therefore,in theory,the government should change the traditional idea of environmental governance in the short term,and change the goal from minimizing pollution emission to realizing reasonable pollution emission.Secondly,in order to achieve flexible control of economy and environment,the government will inevitably continue to adopt new environmental regulation policies.Although this kind of macro-control will enhance the steady-state effect,before reaching the steady-state,the government’s changing environmental regulation policies will often cause fluctuations in the market in the short term,which may cause serious social problems to the developing countries with weak social security system.Therefore,the government should also consider how to take appropriate strategies to enhance the stability of economic response to environmental regulation policies.According to the above,this paper constructs a Ramsey model with pollution emission rigidity to solve the problem of reasonable pollution emission conditions and the government’s environmental regulation objectives;establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with pollution emission impacted to explore the corresponding environmental governance strategies of the government and solve the problem of enhancing the stability of the economic system.Firstly,this paper constructs a Ramsey model with the rigidity of pollution emission from the goal of government environmental regulation.On the basis of logarithmic utility function,this paper introduces pollution emission constraints to build a model to simulate the development and environmental "dilemma" of developing countries,and discusses the reasonable emission conditions of pollution.Based on the data of 29 provinces except Hainan and Tibet from 2003 to 2017,each province is divided into East,middle and west regions according to the actual situation,and the pollution emission exceeding standard situation of each region in China is empirically analyzed by using the reasonable pollution emission conditions.The results show that:(1)according to the reasonable emission conditions,the growth rate of pollutant emission and the capital factor growth rate of the final product market should be in line with a positive linear relationship;(2)there is a general situation that pollutants exceed the reasonable emission in China’s provincial regions,and there are significant characteristics of "higher in the East and middle,lower in the west" and "higher in the north,lower in the South" Point.Then,the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(DSGE)is established.By taking the maximum emission limit as a variable impacted by exogenous policy,the external impact is introduced,and the pollution emission is set as a first-order autoregressive process.By adjusting the autoregressive coefficient of the first-order autoregressive process,this paper studies the environmental governance strategies to enhance the stability of the economic system.The results show that:(1)the positive impact of pollution emissions will make the output of the economic system produce a positive steady-state deviation,on the contrary,it will produce a negative steady-state deviation.And the same degree of positive and negative impact on the economy is symmetrical with the steady-state value;(2)the low autoregressive coefficient corresponding to the government’s more relaxed environmental governance strategy will increase the volatility of the economic system in response to the impact of environmental regulation policies;(3)improving the total factor productivity or capital output elasticity will aggravate the steady-state deviation of economic variables.Finally,with the help of the panel data from 2003 to 2017,the dynamic panel model and individual effect panel model of Eastern,central and western regions are established respectively to study the impact of environmental regulation and related variables on the problem of excessive pollution emissions,and to explore the reasonable environmental regulation intensity and policy of each region.The regression results show that:(1)improving the intensity of environmental regulation and capital growth rate can help to reduce the problem of excessive pollution emissions in the eastern region;(2)due to the strong path dependence,the improvement of the intensity of environmental regulation and capital factors are difficult to stably inhibit the excessive pollution emissions rate in the central region;(3)due to the low elasticity of capital output,compared with the intensity of environmental regulation,the capital factor is more stable It is difficult to effectively reduce the problem of excessive pollution emissions in the western region. |
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