| In recent years,along with the intensification of the negative effects of agricultural "reverse ecology",China’s agricultural ecological development is facing the double constraints of resources and environment.As an important grain producing area and commodity grain base in China,the Northeast region will produce 164 million tons of grain in 2020,accounting for about 24.6% of the total national grain production,but the long-term pursuit of economic benefits of agricultural production contradicts with ecological protection,exposing the problem of environmental pollution and resource waste caused by high inputs and rough agricultural production methods.The organic matter content of the black soil layer has decreased by about 30% on average compared with the early stage of reclamation,and the problem of agricultural ecological environment damage has become prominent,so how to protect the regional agricultural ecological development has become a serious problem in front of the Northeast.Agriculture is the basis of economic development,and solving the problem of agro-ecological development is also the cornerstone of promoting the revitalization of Northeast China,so it is of practical value to carry out research on agro-ecological efficiency and its ecological security.This paper summarizes and draws on relevant research results at home and abroad,selects 36 prefecture-level cities under the jurisdiction of Northeast China as research objects,uses DEA-SBM model to measure agricultural eco-efficiency based on panel data from 2000 to 2019,combines Malmquist index and spatial correlation analysis to conduct dynamic analysis of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of agricultural eco-efficiency in Northeast China;uses P-S-R model to construct an agricultural ecological security index system that meets the actual characteristics of Northeast China,quantitative evaluation and spatio-temporal characteristics analysis of regional agricultural ecological security level,and trend prediction of agricultural ecological security changes from 2020 to 2029 using GM（1,1）model;the spatial Durbin model is used to explore the influencing factors of agricultural ecological development in the study area and propose optimization paths.The study shows that:（1）Agro-ecological efficiency in Northeast China from 2000 to 2019 showed a fluctuating upward trend in general,growing from 0.214 in 2000 to 0.588 in 2019,with an annual average value of 0.549,the overall level is low,and the level varies significantly within the study area,and there is still more room for progress,and the dynamic index decomposition shows that technological progress is the main driving force for improving agro-ecological efficiency The dynamic index decomposition shows that technical progress is the main driving force for improving agroecological efficiency,with a growth rate of 5.9%,and the contribution of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency is small.On the spatial scale,the autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration characteristics of agroecological efficiency in Northeast China have been enhanced,but the differences between regions are large,and the radiation-driven influence of neighboring regions is not strong.（2）The comprehensive index of agro-ecological safety in the Northeast region shows a phase development characteristic of "fluctuating down-steady up" with the year2010 as the time point.In terms of spatial pattern,the level of agro-ecological safety in Northeast China has a significant positive correlation and shows a certain aggregation pattern.Based on the gray correlation model,it is predicted that the subsystem value of agro-ecological security in Northeast China from 2020 to 2029 will show a gentle decreasing trend from 0.199 in 2020 to 0.149 in 2029;the subsystem value of state and subsystem value of response will show different degrees of slow increasing trend from0.149 and 0.144 in 2020 to 0.202 and 0.273 in 2029,respectively.The comprehensive evaluation value of agroecological safety in the study area increased from 0.491 in 2020 to 0.653 in 2029,with an average annual change of 0.016,and the development of agroecological safety is stable and improving.（3）The key influencing factors of agroecological development in Northeast China are analyzed and identified,taking into account the own characteristics and requirements of agroecological development as well as the real situation.The level of farmers’ income,agricultural industry structure,agricultural irrigation rate,and agricultural machinery level play a significant positive role in promoting agroecological development in Northeast China,while the degree of industrial aggregation and agricultural scale level hinder agroecological development.In the future,we should scientifically allocate regional agricultural production factors according to the dominant factors in each region,and construct an optimal path for agroecological development.Measures can be taken in four aspects to guarantee the agroecological development in Northeast China: preventing and controlling pollution emissions from agricultural production;improving the comprehensive productivity of agriculture;actively adjusting the industrial structure of economic development;and improving and implementing the rules and regulations for agricultural environmental protection. |
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