Research On Safety Evaluation Of Crossing Runway At The Back Of Take-off Point Based On FCM

With the rapid development of civil aviation in China,the capacity and throughput of domestic airports are also increasing.In order to relieve the pressure of airport operation and improve the capacity of airport,more and more airports in China begin to build multi-runway,but the problem of aircraft crossing the runway is inevitable in the process of multi-runway airport operation.At present,there are two main ways to cross the runway in China: the front crossing of take-off aircraft and U-taxiing.The front crossing not only increases the waiting time of taxiing,but also involves runway intrusion and other safety problems.The U-taxiing mode increases the time of ground sliding and makes the operation efficiency of the scene low.Therefore,some scholars put forward the operation mode of crossing runway at the back of take-off point.Before the actual implementation of the new crossing mode,it is necessary to carry out a safety assessment.Based on this,this thesis conducts a safety assessment study on the crossing runway at the back of take-off point.In this thesis,the risk factors affecting the way of crossing runway at the back of take-off point are analyzed from the perspectives of “human aircraft environment and management”.And the safety evaluation index system of crossing runway at the back of take-off point is constructed.According to the safety assessment index system,the interaction relationship of various risk factors affecting the crossing mode was studied by using ISM,and then the key influencing factors were determined,and the initial weight of each influencing factor was determined by using the precedence chart.Then,a posterior traversal fuzzy cognitive maps(FCM)evaluation model was established,and the initial nodes and node weights of the FCM evaluation model were determined by combining the key influencing factors determined by the interpretative structural model and the index weights determined by the precedence chart.The expert experience method was used to determine the causal intensity between nodes,and the improved nonlinear Hebbian learning algorithm was used to learn and train the model to determine the final weight value of important influencing factors.Finally,Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport is taken as an example to evaluate the safety of the crossing runway at the back of take-off point.Anylogic is used to conduct simulation verification of the crossing runway at Jiangbei Airport.According to the safety evaluation of the crossing,some suggestions are put forward for the airport to implement the crossing runway at the back of take-off point.Through the example evaluation and simulation verification,it can be concluded that Chongqing Jiangbei Airport can theoretically carry out the runway crossing behind the takeoff point,and the overall risk value of carrying out the runway crossing is slightly dangerous,which needs to be paid attention to.Therefore,measures should be taken to control important influencing factors before implementation.