Effectiveness Evaluation Of China’s Carbon Trading Policies From The Perspective Of Carbon Emission Reduction Costs

Climate change is a problem that China has always attached great importance to.Controlling greenhouse gas emissions and saving energy and improving energy efficiency are the keys to solving the problem.To this end,China has actively adopted various measures to promote energy conservation and emission reduction and promote the transformation of a low-carbon economy.As a market-oriented carbon emission reduction mechanism,carbon trading policy has received extensive attention and discussion due to its advantages such as flexibility,cost saving and effectiveness,and is considered to be an effective means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address climate change.In the 12 th Five-Year Plan in 2011,China proposed to gradually establish a carbon trading market.In 2013,it started to start trading in seven pilot regions,namely Beijing,Tianjin,Hubei,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Guangdong and Chongqing.The market first launched online transactions in the power generation industry.However,in the process of green and low-carbon transformation,China is still facing the pressure to maintain economic growth and the constraints of energy conservation and emission reduction targets.The loss of GDP brought about by the need to properly handle the relationship between the opportunity cost of emission reduction and economic development.Therefore,this paper will evaluate the effectiveness of China’s carbon trading policies from the perspective of changes in carbon emission reduction costs,which is of great significance to the realization of green and low-carbon development.Based on a panel dataset of 30 provincial-level regions in China（excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Taiwan,and Macau）from 2006 to 2019,this paper firstly estimates the CO2 shadow price using the duality principle of the SBM-DEA model considering undesired output,and use it as the carbon marginal abatement cost.Since 2013,it has increased year by year.With the implementation of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies,carbon dioxide emissions are subject to emission reduction targets and emission reduction measures,which increases the difficulty of carbon dioxide emission reduction.The greater the difficulty,the higher the economic opportunity cost;At the same time,the carbon dioxide shadow price,that is,the marginal cost of carbon emission reduction,varies significantly among regions,as shown by the fact that the average carbon shadow price in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western regions;the emission reduction cost in pilot regions is higher than that in non-pilot regions,which is the national The implementation of the establishment of a carbon trading market provides a reference basis,and provinces gain benefits in the process of carbon trading and save emission reduction costs.Due to the high level of economic development in the eastern region,the transformation of the economic development model to a green economy,the high level of green and low-carbon development,the low carbon emission intensity,and the difficulty in reducing emissions,the economic cost,that is,the marginal cost of emission reduction,is high,and thus the shadow prices of carbon dioxide are high.Secondly,this paper regards the start-up of carbon trading in 7 pilot provinces and cities of carbon trading in 2013 as an exogenous quasi-natural experiment,and quantitatively analyzes the policy effect by establishing a double difference（DID）model.The empirical results show that the implementation of carbon trading policies will increase the opportunity cost of carbon emission reduction in the short term.,China’s current economic growth is still at the expense of high pollution and high energy consumption.The implementation of carbon trading makes the increase in cost greater than the innovative compensation effect of technological progress.Finally,this paper conducts a cross-sectional analysis of the cost of carbon emission reduction costs.From the cross-sectional dimension,the annual change rate of carbon emission reduction costs in pilot areas and non-pilot areas is calculated,and the carbon emission reduction costs and influencing factors of each province in China after a period of lag are calculated.Regression analysis and empirical results show that the growth rate of carbon emission reduction costs shows a downward trend and tends to be flat.At the same time,the significant level of R＆D investment（R＆D）among the influencing factors is high,indicating that the implementation of carbon trading policies will gradually achieve carbon emissions.The total social cost saving effect of emission reduction,and through the compensation effect of technological innovation,the weak porter effect is realized,and finally the strong porter effect is realized through the improvement of economic efficiency and the improvement of environmental energy performance.