Economic Effects Of Command-and-control Abatement Policies Under China’s 2030 Carbon Intensity Goal

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions,China has committed to reducing its national carbon emission intensity,which is a measure of carbon dioxide produced per unit of gross domestic product（GDP）,by 65% by 2030 compared with the level in 2005.The government is also pursuing corresponding abatement initiatives to achieve the intended carbon intensity goal,such as industrial capacity limitation.Therefore,it is necessary to figure out the mechanism of action and emission reduction effect of such command-and-control policies,and to explore whether such policies can help achieve the goal of carbon intensity reduction.Thus,this study sets up three emission reduction scenarios considering social equality,economic efficiency and forest carbon sequestration respectively,and uses a mixed input-output model including the residential sector to quantitatively analyze the economic impact of industrial capacity restriction policies on achieving the 2030 carbon emission reduction target.Our results indicated that,under the 2030 carbon emission goal,the GDP in China would decline by 16.99–40.84 trillion yuan（equivalent to a marginal abatement cost of 2,314.62–5,386.89 yuan per ton of carbon dioxide reduction）,depending on different policy initiatives.The policy of carbon reduction for high-emission sectors only is more cost-effective and economic efficient and has resulted in fewer negative economic impacts than the policy of requiring all economic sectors to do so.Asking high–carbon emission industries to undertake carbon abatement can further reduce national carbon emission intensity.Additionally,Strengthening forest carbon sink management will bring significant potential economic benefits.