Research On Multidimensional Travel Joint Decision Based On Cummulative Prospect Theory

With the process of motorization is accelerating,the number of motor vehicles is increasing year by year.The ever-expanding demand for travel has undoubtedly made the transportation of the entire city more complicated,and eventually made the entire transportation system evolve into a system with uncertainty.The various types of unstable traffic flow patterns that occur in the urban road network are essentially the substantial results of a large number of travelers by adopting different travel decision plans,so travel decision research needs to be continuously deepened.Most of the current research on traffic travel behavior is based on the homogeneity of travellers,ignoring the heterogeneity among travellers,and the research is mostly focused on a single decision-making behavior,less research for more multidimensional joint decision.Different travellers have different characteristics,so it is necessary to carry out differentiated research on travel groups to build a multi-dimensional joint travel decision model for different types of travel groups,so as to provide a certain reference basis for formulating refined traffic demand management programs.Firstly,it explained the concept of travel decision,and the factors that influence traveler’s travel decision are analyzed from both subjective and objective perspectives.Then,it explained the differences and advantages of expected utility theory and prospect theory,discuss the applicability of prospect theory in travel behavior,and propose a structural framework for cumulative prospect theory;Secondly,it explained the differences of travellers,statistical basic travel data through questionnaire surveys,using SPSS correlation analysis tests the reliability of the influencing factors,and finally uses the two-stage clustering method to obtain the classification characteristics of the travel group.Then use single factor analysis of variance to determine the reference point components as arrival time and travel time,and use the earliest arrival time _eT,the latest arrival time _wT and the best arrival time T_p as reference basis to establish the traveler’s reference point function,put forward the calculation method of risk preference coefficient;it use Bayesian theory to update the reference point,propose a multidimensional travel joint decision model based on cumulative prospect theory,construct value function,subjective perception probability function and decision weight function to describe the prospects of the traveler’s alternatives and determine the travel plan.The road network from the Chongqing Liu Gong Li to the Fortune Center is selected as a research example,and the multidimensional joint travel decision model is constructed by using the obtained data and the differences of different types of travel groups.The joint decision plan obtained by the model is compared with the travel decision result of the field investigation.The result proves that the established model has less deviation from the actual situation,confirms that the established model has higher applicability,and can accurately describe the thel travel decision behavior of different types of travel groups.