Research On The Configuration And Layout Optimization Of Urban General Hospitals

Hospital is a medical institution that provides medical examination,treatment diagnosis and treatment services for patients with life-saving as the main service purpose.It is the main medical service facility in a city.Hospital configuration and layout is an important central issue in urban development,which is not only to meet the fair and reasonable allocation of medical resources,but also to ensure the utilization efficiency of facilities.With the change of population structure and the reform of medical system,the demand for urban medical resources is also changing.The imbalance between the supply and demand of medical resources is gradually aggravating,and the existing hospital spatial layout can no longer meet the needs of people for medical treatment.Therefore,according to the medical needs under different situations,hospitals are divided into nonemergency hospitals and emergency hospitals in this thesis.The development trend of hospitals is predicted and analyzed respectively,and the configuration model is established,and the hospital configuration and layout optimization is studied to meet people’s fair and reasonable medical care demand in this thesis.The specific research contents are as follows.First,the demand of non-emergency hospitals is forecasted in the thesis.Grey Relational Analysis method is used to determine the key influencing factors of the medical demand,and the ARIMA model is used to predict the influencing factors.The prediction results are input into the BP neural network to predict the medical demand of general hospitals in Beijing in the next five years.Secondly,the configuration and layout of non-emergency hospitals are studied.According to the multi-directional characteristics of the general hospital demand flow,considering the nested service level,full coverage of all requirements and the maximum capacity limit of facilities,the hierarchical allocation model of non-emergency hospitals is established.The effectiveness of the model is verified by taking Dongcheng District of Beijing as an example.Thirdly,the demand of emergency hospitals is forecasted in the thesis.Based on the classic SIR model of infectious disease dynamics,an infectious disease model is constructed and improved.The COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan in 2020 is taken as the research object to predict the medical demand of emergency hospitals,so as to verify the effectiveness of the model.Finally,the configuration and layout of emergency hospitals are studied.The configuration model is built according to the characteristics of emergency hospitals,and the POI data is obtained by Python programming and the preliminary candidate points are screened.Then,the candidate hospital points are further screened by combining GIS technology,and the Lagrange Relaxation Algorithm is designed to solve the configuration model to get the final construction points and configuration layout scheme of emergency hospitals.Taking Beijing as the research object,a case study and model application is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method,and a variety of configuration and layout schemes are given.