Prediction Model Of Heat Stroke Incidence Rate Based On Heat Index

In recent years,with the global warming and climate change,extreme high temperature weather has been frequent in the world,resulting in the increase of incidence rate and mortality rate of heat stroke,which has a great impact on human life and health.As everyone knows,prevention and control is very important according to extreme weather parameters that are harmful to human health.The prediction of incidence rate of heatstroke is also the key factor to prevent heatstroke intervention strategy and to arrange the ambulance availability reasonably.Therefore,it is essential to establish a reliable prediction model for incidence rate of heatstroke.The incidence rate and mortality rate of heat stroke,the positive and negative factors,the commonly used thermal stress index,the thermal adaptation rule and the incidence rate prediction model of heat stroke were briefly reviewed.The data sources and statistical methods of the patients with heat and heat stroke were briefly described.Incidence rate incidence rate of incidence rate of heat stroke was calculated based on the weather data from four cities in Tokyo City,Saitama,Osaka and Aichi from 2010 to 2019.The basic prediction formula for heatstroke incidence was established by analyzing the relationship between the incidence of heat stroke and the incidence of heat stroke.This study found that geographical location,meteorological parameters,continuous high temperature days and thermal adaptability of human body have important influence on incidence rate of heatstroke,and it is a factor that can not be ignored in predicting incidence rate.Geographical location and meteorological parameters can be replaced by the offset of average thermal index temperature,which breaks the limitation that the prediction model is only applicable to Japan;The continuous high temperature curve was a parabola with a symmetrical axis of tenth days.The thermal adaptation degree increased slowly 10 days ago.The cumulative heat load of human body was greater than that of thermal adaptation,which caused the incidence rate of heatstroke to increase to the highest value.After 10 days,the thermal adaptation of human body increased,but the effect of thermal adaptation was larger than that of the body.The incidence rate began to decline.Until the twentieth day,the body reached complete thermal adaptation.The incidence rate was only 0.6of normal.Under the same environmental conditions,the incidence rate decreased to0.6 at the end of summer（80 days later）due to seasonal thermal adaptation.At the same time,this paper summarizes the law of middle summer heat adaptation as follows: within the 10 th day when the human body is in the thermal environment,the thermal adaptation can increase to suppress the negative impact of the accumulated heat load in the body,and achieve complete thermal adaptation on the 20 th day.Compared with sports heat adaptation,the increase rate of middle summer heat adaptation is slow.The peaks of wet bulb black bulb temperature（WBGT）and ambient temperature（TA）are the most widely used indicators for the prevention of heatstroke,but heatstroke is not caused by the instantaneous environment,so it is not rigorous to use the instantaneous peak as the prevention index.Based on the comparison of prediction models of thermal stress index（WBGT,ETV,UTCI,Ta）,the paper predicts that indoor WBGT is the most accurate explanatory variable for predicting the incidence rate of heat stroke,and the maximum daily mean of five hours is better than the instantaneous peak value.Finally,the prediction model is used to predict the incidence rate of heat stroke in Japan in 2020 and in Songjiang District,Shanghai,which is very close to the actual value.Compared with other models at the same time and place,the model developed in this paper is the most superior,and the prediction model of heat stroke incidence with thermal stress index as explanatory variable is proved to be applicable2011-2017.