Time Series Prediction Based On The Dependence Of Hospital Consumption

With the continuous development of the economy,people’s living standards have been steadily improved and medical knowledge has been greatly popular-ized,people’s concept of medical treatment has changed from traditional treatment to comprehensive attention to their own health.Nowadays,the medical securi-ty system has become an important part of the national economic development.which maintains the stability of social medical care and guarantees the people’s livelihood.At present,with the population increasing and the aging trend,the medical system is facing many pressures and unprecedented challenges.It is urgent to establish a more scientific and reasonable medical management mechanism for the current problems,but it needs support and cooperation from many aspectsChina’s medical insurance started late,and it has taken more than ten years to establish a preliminary institutional framework.However,with the continuous growth of the insured and the insured amount,how to allocate and control the rea-sonable medical insurance expenses is the key and difficult point.At present,the main form of fee control in China is total prepayment,that is,the medical insurance bureau formulates the next year’s payment plan according to the previous years’situation of each hospital,so as to avoid waste and excessive expenditure caused by unreasonable distribution.Therefore,the medical insurance bureau needs to fully understand the economic situation of each hospital under its jurisdiction.Ac-cording to the actual situation,we can allocate funds in the early stage of finance effectively,so that patients can receive corresponding medical services in time.and at the same time,we can guarantee the national financial balance.In addi-tion,hospitals can also take effective measures to reasonably allocate and manage their existing resources by understanding their own economic situation.Therefore.this paper will analyze and predict the inpatient income of hospitals in the same area,and grasp the economic status of hospitals,so as to facilitate the management of medical insurance bureau and hospitalsThis paper uses the data of Siping District of Jilin Medical Insurance Bureau,mainly uses the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model,the vector auto-regression(VAR)model、the simplified vector auto-regression mod-el and the vector error correction(VEC)model to establish a reasonable model and scientifically analyze and predict the selected inpatient income of Siping City hospital.First,a single time series model is used,However,considering the depen-dence of hospitals in the same area,the remaining three multivariate time series models are adopted.At the end of the paper,the advantages and disadvantages of each model are summarized and compared,and the corresponding suggestions for future research are given.