| Objective:Comparing the characteristics of changes in the basic conditions of tuberculosis patients in the border areas of Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2018,and using the differential autoregressive moving average model(ARIMA)to predict the monthly incidence of the border areas of Yunnan Province,it is helpful to analyze the seasonal epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in the border areas of Yunnan Province and reveal Its epidemic law provides a reference for the prevention and control of tuberculosis in border areas.Methods:Using retrospective research methods,on the basis of reported tuberculosis case data from eight prefectures(Nujiang,Dehong,Xishuangbanna,Baoshan,Lincang,Pu’er,Honghe,Wenshan)in the border areas of Yunnan Province,the eight border prefectures in 2009-The basic situation of tuberculosis in 2018;using descriptive epidemiological methods to analyze the basic situation of tuberculosis in the border areas of Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2018;using the time series ARIMA model,through time series graphs,seasonal and non-seasonal differences,and autocorrelation Sum partial autocorrelation analysis and white noise inspection are used to analyze the trend of tuberculosis incidence data in Yunnan border areas from 2009 to 2017,and predict the monthly number of tuberculosis cases in Yunnan border areas in 2018 and fit the actual values.Results:1.From 2009 to 2018,the 129,503 newly registered tuberculosis patients in the CDC among the eight border cities of Yunnan Province had the lowest reported incidence in 2009 and the highest reported incidence in 2018,from 10877 cases in 2009(59.90/10 million))Increased to 15,625 cases(81.15 per 100,000)in 2018,and the reported incidence increased by 1.35 times.Among them,43,683 cases of smear-positive tuberculosis were reported,and the incidence was the lowest in 2015,with 2852 cases(15.06 per 100,000).In 2011,the reported incidence was the highest,with 6226 cases(33.64 per 100,000).The highest and lowest reported incidence differed by 2.23 times.2.The age distribution of tuberculosis in the border areas of Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2018.The patients were between 0-97 years old and the average age was 42.74±17.07 years.The proportion of young adults aged 19-29 years is the highest,with a 10-year average proportion of 21.3%;the proportion of minors less than 18 years old is the lowest,less than 10%;the proportion of adults aged 18 and above has little difference.3.The gender distribution of tuberculosis in the border areas of Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2018.Among them,there were 89,187 cases of males,accounting for 68.87%;40,316 cases of females,accounting for 31.13%,and the ratio of males to females was 2.21:1.The gender distribution of tuberculosis and smear-positive tuberculosis is the same.Both men account for a higher proportion of men than women.The proportions of men are 68.87%and 71.96%,respectively.The average male to female ratios are 2.21:1 and 2.57:1,respectively..4.The regional distribution of tuberculosis population in the border areas of Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2018,including 6273 cases in other cities in the province,10868 cases in other counties and districts in this city,109033 cases in this county,2919 cases in other provinces,397 cases in foreign countries,and 13 cases in Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan The regional distribution is dominated by cities and counties,accounting for 83.19%.Other cities in this province,other counties in this city,other provinces,foreign nationals,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan account for 4.84%,9.39%,2.25%,0.31%and 0.01%.5.Occupational distribution of the tuberculosis population in the border areas of Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2018.Among the occupational distribution,farmers accounted for the highest proportion(82.81%),followed by students(3.89%),housekeeping and unemployed workers(2.32%),and retired workers(1.95%)),workers(1.94%),migrant workers(1.52%)and officials(1.07%).The remaining professional groups:business services(0.78%),teachers(0.70%),medical staff(0.30%),scattered children(0.28%),herders(0.11%),catering and food industry(0.10%),waiters in public places(0.06%),seafarers and long-distance pilots(0.05%),children in kindergartens(0.04%),fishermen(boats)(0.01%)and childcare workers and nanny(0.01%)have a low proportion,less than 1%.6.According to the prediction model ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 fitted by the number of reported cases of tuberculosis in the border areas of Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2017,predict the number of tuberculosis cases in the border areas of Yunnan Province in 2018,The monthly distribution of the number of reported cases of tuberculosis in the border area of Yunnan Province in 2018 is similar to the distribution of the monthly incidence of tuberculosis in the previous 10 years,and the monthly number of tuberculosis cases in the border area of Yunnan Province in 2018 and the predicted value fit well.Conclusion:The number of reported cases in the border areas of Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2018 showed an overall upward trend.There are differences in age and gender distribution in the prevalence of tuberculosis.The main population is male,19-29 years old,and farmers;there are also seasonal characteristics showing 4 High incidence in July;unbalanced epidemic situation in border areas of Yunnan Province,mainly in Nujiang Prefecture.The ARIMA prediction model has a good effect on the prediction of tuberculosis epidemics,and can be used as a tool for the short-term prediction of tuberculosis epidemics at the grassroots level.In the prevention and control of tuberculosis in the border areas of Yunnan Province,tuberculosis prevention and control policies and measures should be implemented in a standardized manner according to the epidemiological characteristics,and the same prevention and treatment at the grassroots level should be strengthened;active detection,continuous epidemic monitoring,and emergency measures should be integrated;Use feasible forecasting tools for effective early warning to promote the improvement of prevention and control. |
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