Time Series Analysis Based On Inpatient Care Data

With the deepening reform of medical health policy,medical and health service system of our country grows vigorously,the regulations of insurance of primary medical treatment to improve integration,support for medical expenses continue to increase the number of the medical establishment that decide a dot,infiltration of medical resources endowment policy,Internet auxiliary medical service such as the rapid emergence of new forms of medical needs,make the health care management work faces new challenges to the new situation.At the beginning of the establishment of the medical insurance system,a combination of individual payment and national financial subsidies was adopted for financing,and dynamic adjustments were made every year in response to problems arising in the implementation process.The reform goal of the medical system in the new era is to establish an efficient and pragmatic medical insurance payment system,improve the collegial management of medical insurance,and further urge the standardization and rule of law of retail drugstores and designated hospitals.At present,there are still problems in the fund division of different regions and different hospitals in the same region in the medical insurance system.The main problems include unbalanced treatment division and weak ability of medical insurance fund sharing,etc.,and there is still room for development of residents’ medical service level,and the follow-up security level needs to be improved.In hospitals in the Jilin ginseng protect patients in hospital medical records as the research object,for hospitals in hospital a month to produce the total cost of time series prediction and analysis,to explore various hospital cost limit along with the change trend of fluctuations in February,provide a reference for the hospital medical treatment according to different quarter situation,It provides data analysis reference for the reform of medical insurance fund division system.The data in this paper recorded the information of individual visits to hospitals in Jilin Province.First,descriptive statistical analysis was made on the data,and three time series of total hospitalization cost,length of stay and number of inpatients were sorted out respectively for each hospital,and then the sorted hospitals were screened.Second hospital do clustering analysis,after the screening of different categories of hospital hospitalization expenses for time series prediction,a month respectively adopted ARIMA model,BP neural network model,RBP neural network model to forecast,respectively from the linear relationship,the nonlinear relationship between Angle analysis of the characteristics of hospitalization costs over time of a month.In addition,the characteristics of the number of hospitalizations and the number of days of hospitalization in each hospital as well as the influence on the hospitalization cost are also analyzed.It provides important reference information for further improving the basic medical insurance system,fixed-point management,financing policy and fund relationship allocation.