| Objective: To establish a predictive model for readmission within 90 days in patients chronic heart failure.Methods: Setting inclusion and exclusion criteria,the medical records of 500 patients with chronic heart failure diagnosed in the Department of Cardiology,Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities from September1,2019 to December 1,2019 were retrospectively analyzed,including demographic,clinical characteristics,blood indexes,noninvasive diagnostic tools,invasive examination,complications,medication and readmission outcome.Using R language statistical software,the risk factors and prediction model of 90 day readmission of chronic heart failure were analyzed and constructed.Results: Among 500 patients with chronic heart failure,134 patients(26.80%)were readmitted within 90 days;through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis,five prognostic risk factors of chronic heart failure were found in25 variables: age,hyponatremia,NT-proBNP,left atrial diameter,History of coronary angiography,all of which had statistical differences(P < 0.05);and according to these five predictors,the risk factors of chronic heart failure were analyzed The C statistic was 0.71(95% CI,0.64-0.78).ROC curve and calibration curve showed that the nomogram had moderate predictive ability.Conclusion: Age,hyponatremia,NT-proBNP,left atrial diameter and history of coronary angiography can be used as predictors of 90 day readmission in patients with chronic heart failure,this model has moderate prediction power. |
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