Spatial-temporal Distribution Of Hand-foot-mouth Disease And Meteorological Factors In Xinjiang

Hand,foot and mouth disease is an infectious disease caused by a variety of enterovirus infections,which frequently occurs in children under 6 years of age.The number of cases of hand,foot and mouth disease in my country has risen sharply since 2008,showing a trend of expanding the scope of the affected provinces,and it has become one of the major public health problems.At present,many research results show that meteorological factors have a certain influence on hand,foot and mouth disease,and the influence of weather factors on hand,foot and mouth disease varies from region to region.Since 2008,the number of hand,foot and mouth disease cases in Xinjiang has been on the rise.Between 2008 and 2018,there were 78,884 cases of morbidity.Among them,the number of cases in 2016 and 2018 exceeded 10,000.At present,the research of hand,foot and mouth disease is mainly based on statistical analysis,focusing on describing its time,place and population characteristics.Some studies are based on administrative divisions with relatively coarse scales.This article uses Xinjiang’s hand,foot and mouth disease data from 2008 to 2018 to study the relationship between the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Xinjiang and meteorological factors on a25 km×25 km grid,analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of hand,foot and mouth disease,and obtain the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease.The main influencing factors and risk areas of the disease,test the seasonal prediction model of hand,foot and mouth disease.The main research results are as follows:(1)From 2008 to 2018,the number of hand-foot-mouth patients in Xinjiang remained high.The total number of cases was 78,884,and the annual average number of cases was 7171.The annual incidence rate varies greatly among regions.The top three regions are: Urumqi,Karamay,and Tacheng.The main subjects are infants and young children aged 0-6,accounting for 92.11% of the total number of cases.Among the four types of people with the disease,children in kindergartens accounted for 40.80%,scattered children accounted for 50.40%,students accounted for 7.60%,and other populations accounted for 1.20%.The male to female ratio of the onset was 1.52:1.The onset time is mainly from May to July,accounting for 66.8% of the total number of cases in the year.The spatial distribution of the number of cases is obvious,and the range of the incidence area is relatively fixed each year,with dense areas to the north of Tianshan Mountains.The top three regions for the total number of cases in 11 years are: Urumqi City> Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture> Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture.The top three areas with a positive increase in incidence are: Urumqi City>Karamay City> Tacheng City.(2)Temperature has a greater impact on the number of cases of foot and mouth disease,while precipitation and the number of cases have a time lag of about one month.In Xinjiang,the suitable temperature threshold range for disease incidence is 16.4-24.4 ℃,and the suitable monthly total precipitation threshold range for disease incidence is 10-34 mm.From May to July,when the number of cases is the highest,the impact of temperature and precipitation on the number of cases varies from region to region.The number of cases in June is positively correlated with the monthly average temperature in more regions,and the number of cases in May and July is weaker than the monthly average temperature.There are more positively relevant regions.In most areas,the number of cases of hand,foot and mouth disease was positively correlated with the total monthly precipitation,and the number of cases in May had the highest correlation with the total monthly precipitation.(3)The scope of hand,foot and mouth disease risk areas varies with time,but the scope of high-risk and medium-risk areas is relatively fixed.The high-risk areas are Urumqi,the medium-risk areas are Yining and Shihezi,and the other areas are low-risk areas.The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA)seasonal model can predict the number of monthly cases well,and the prediction effect is nice.