A Study Of Grain Price Fluctuations In Hubei During The Period From Daoguang To Xuantong

Hubei was an important grain-producing region in China during the Qing Dynasty,but the overall research on grain prices in Hubei is slightly under-researched by academics.This thesis examines the fluctuating trends and patterns of grain prices in different grain-producing areas of Hubei during the 89-year period from the Daoguang to Xuantong dynasties of the Qing dynasty,focusing on the Hubei region,and examines the complex dynamics behind the fluctuations in grain prices by counting and verifying the data on grain prices and harvest fractions contained in the official zhengqi of the Qing dynasty.There are unique spatial and temporal characteristics of grain price fluctuation trends in Hubei.In time,grain prices in Hubei showed three characteristics: a general trend upwards,seasonal fluctuations and irregular fluctuations.Daoguang first year to twenty years,Tongzhi first year to eleven years,Guangxu twenty-two years to Xuantong three years for Hubei three obvious "high grain prices time".The high price of rice and soybeans in Hubei fluctuated on a similar trend,rising from January to May each year,peaking in June and then falling back to the trough in October and November;the high price of barley and wheat fluctuated on a similar trend,rising from January to March each year,peaking in April and falling back to the trough in August and September during the harvest period.Spatially,the overall trend of grain prices in Hubei is consistent,but the high and low grain prices vary from one grain producing area to another.The trend of grain price fluctuation is similar in the southern and eastern regions of Hubei;the low price of four kinds of grain in the eastern region is at a higher level in the province;the low price of medium rice,the low price of barley and the high price of soybean in the north of Hubei are the lowest in the province;the high and low prices of second wheat in the north of Hubei are at a higher level in the province;the high price of four kinds of grain in the south of Hubei is at a higher level in the province and the low price is at a lower level in the province.The factors affecting grain prices are divided into natural and man-made factors.Natural disasters in Hubei during the Daoguang-Xuantong period were classified into five levels according to the severity of the disaster,and the relationship between prices and disasters was analysed from a regression model: natural disasters in Hubei caused food prices to rise in the short term,but their long-term fluctuation trend was not significantly related to natural disasters.The price of food in Hubei can be divided into three stages: during the Daoguang period,the price of food in Hubei was affected by the general economic environment of the Daoguang depression and was on a gentle downward trend;during the Xian Tong period,the military confrontation caused the price of food in Hubei to fluctuate and rise;after the 20 th year of Guangxu,population growth and fluctuations in the price of silver and money caused the price of food to rise sharply.The fluctuations in grain prices in Hubei between the Daoguang and Xuantong periods reveal that from the Daoguang depression to the colonial abyss,Hubei was forced into the international market production and distribution system,losing its right to set its own prices in the grain market and becoming an object of economic plunder by Western capital.Since then,the grain market in Hubei has been plunged into a deep and intertwined semi-colonial national crisis and economic crisis.