An Empirical Study On The Influencing Factors Of Financial Risk Of Chinese Real Estate Listed Companies Based On Structural Equation Model

Real estate industry has a long chain,which involves important aspects of national economic development and people's lives.Especially in the recent two years of the national real estate regulation cycle,nearly 200 real estate enterprises applied for bankruptcy,the main reason for bankruptcy is the transmission of financial risk,thus enterprise bankruptcy.Focusing on the study of the influencing factors of financial risk of real estate enterprises in China,it is of theoretical and practical significance to analyze which factors are the external factors causing financial risk and carry out relevant research.In this paper,the structural equation model(SEM)is used to construct the evaluation index and evaluation model based on the characteristics of real estate industry and previous studies,focusing on the influencing factors of financial risk of real estate listed companies in China.Structural equation model is a mathematical statistical method that combines traditional linear regression analysis and factor analysis.By constructing two levels of evaluation indicators,qualitative factors are quantified.Not only the relationship between the latent variables,but also the relationship between the latent variables and the explicit variables are studied,and the reliability and accuracy of the empirical analysis are more scientific.Especially in the study of economic things,the structural equation model can be used to model complex relationships and quantify abstract concepts to analyze the internal and external relationships between factors.Applying to this article,the structural equation model can be used to classify the impact factors and construct first-level and second-level indicators to evaluate the financial risks of real estate listed companies,which has certain applicability in research.The main research ideas and internal logic of this paper have evolved in this way.Firstly,it combs the existing research results,chooses topics in the weak links of the research on financial risk assessment of real estate enterprises,establishes the research direction of the paper,and expounds the necessity and novelty of the research.Secondly,it gives an overview of China's real estate enterprises,elaborates their basic connotation,development stage,risk characteristics and so on.On this basis,it combs the main problems faced in practice.Thirdly,aiming at studying the driving factors of financial risk in real estate enterprises,six kinds of factors are constructed as explanatory variables on the basis of previous studies,and as latent variables in structural equation model.On the basis of the inherent logical relationship of financial indicators,factors are extracted,and four financial indicators are selected as the direct measure of financial risk.Finally,using the SEM structural equation model,the collected data are brought into the SEM structural equation model to test.Finally,the relationship between the explanatory variables and the explanatory variables of financial risk is obtained,and the path coefficient is calculated.Through empirical analysis,the paper draws the following main conclusions:Firstly,among the influencing factors of financial risk of real estate companies,there are four categories that pass the significance test,which are ranked in order of monetary policy,enterprise size,market supply and marketing,and macroeconomics,with coefficients of 0.92,0.85,0.82,and 0.61.Secondly,in terms of specific factors,GDP,M1 change rate,interest rate change,the real estate inventory-sale ratio,real estate start-up volume,asset size,operating income and other seven specific factors have significant impact on the financial risk of real estate enterprises.They are: variable GDP is significant at 0.05 level,indicating that financial risk is significantly affected by GDP factors;The correlation coefficient is 0.4403;the correlation coefficient of M1 change rate is0.0832,significant at 0.05 level;the correlation coefficient of variable interest rate change is 0.4167,significant at 0.01 level;the real estate inventory-sale ratio and financial risk have significant impact,the correlation coefficient is 0.4517;the correlation coefficient of real estate start-up is 2.8715;the correlation coefficient of variable asset size is 0.4517;the coefficient of operating income factor is 8.3651.Aiming at the conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis,this article focuses on more scientifically responding to the impact of changes in external factors on financial risk,and proposes five main recommendations.The innovations of this paper are as follows: Firstly,the research perspective is more innovative.Current research results show that most of the research focuses on the identification of corporate financial risk and financial risk early warning.The research perspective is to evaluate the size of corporate financial risk and to build a financial early warning mechanism.However,there are few studies on the influencing factors of financial risk,and less on the influencing factors of financial risk of real estate enterprises.In the existing literature,some of them are limited to using the traditional financial index ratio to carry out risk assessment from the perspective of financial ratio.Some are limited to a certain category of influencing factors and lack of comprehensiveness.This paper not only focuses on the analysis of traditional financial ratios,but also pays more attention to empirical research on macroeconomic,monetary policy,corporate governance,risk control and other aspects.Second,the evaluation index is more comprehensive.Focusing on the practical characteristics of real estate enterprises,this paper constructs an evaluation index which covers both external and internal aspects of enterprises.The evaluation index is transformed into latent variable and explicit variable,representing the first-level evaluation index and the secondlevel evaluation index respectively,which reflects innovation in the research process.Structural equation model is used to analyze the path relationship between latent variables and explicit variables,and the linkage of each evaluation index is taken into account.