| Urbanization is the only way for economic development,but it also causes an irreversible impact on the natural environment and ecosystem,seriously affecting the ecological environment and regional sustainable development.It is of great significance to study the impact of land use/cover change on habitat quality to analyze the regional ecological environment and promote regional sustainable development.Taking Guanshan Lake District of Guiyang,a national ecological civilization construction demonstration area,as the research object,this paper studied and analyzed the change of land use/cover in Guanshan Lake District based on Landsat remote sensing images in 2010,2015,and 2020.Based on this,the evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Guanshan Lake District were studied and presented.The main work and achievements are as follows:(1)Given the problem that the traditional CA-Markov model is difficult to comprehensively take into account the effects of various factors on land use and cover,resulting in low accuracy of simulation and prediction,the MCE-GD-CA-Markov coupling model is proposed to optimize and improve CA-Markov by introducing multiple evaluation criteria and geographical detectors.The simulation results of land use and cover change in Guanshan Lake District,Guiyang City show that the consistency(Kappa coefficient)between the land use data simulated by CA-Markov and the actual land use data interpreted by remote sensing images in 2020 is 0.7763,while the Kappa coefficient increases to 0.9394 after the introduction of MCE and GD.This paper shows that the optimization and improvement scheme proposed by CA-Markov has achieved results.(2)The MCE-GD-CA-Markov model proposed in this paper was used to analyze the land use/cover change in the Guanshan Lake region from 2010 to 2020,and the spatial pattern of land use/cover in the Guanshan Lake region in 2025 under four different scenarios of natural development,ecological protection,cultivated land protection and comprehensive development was simulated and predicted.The study will land into waters,construction land,forest land,arable land,grassland and another land six types,the elevation,gradient,slope direction,population density,fiscal revenue,night lighting data,is apart from the road,railway,residential areas,administrative units,waters,and the disaster point distance 12 indicators as a multi-criteria evaluation rule of the influence of indicators,Basic farmland and protected natural land were taken as restrictive criteria,and factor detectors in geographical detectors were introduced to detect the spatial differentiation of impact criteria,and the detection results were taken as utility coefficients in the multi-criteria evaluation function.Based on this,landuse suitability atlas was made to determine the transfer probability matrix of land types.The results show that the cultivated land has been reduced and the construction land has been increased in Guanshan Lake area,which shows that the urban development has occupied a large amount of cultivated land in Guanshan Lake area,and the contradiction between human and land has become increasingly prominent.(3)The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of land use/cover in Guanshan Lake area were studied by using various methods and the possible driving factors were analyzed.Using the land area transfer matrix,the characteristics of land flow direction,urban expansion speed and dynamic expansion are studied.The characteristics of spatial structure evolution of land use in Guanshan Lake area were studied using standard deviation ellipse analysis and spatial Lorenz curve analysis.Shannon entropy principle and fractal dimension method were used to study the urban sprawl and spatial morphology in Guanshan Lake area.The results show that the center of gravity of construction land moves from the east to the southwest,and the urban sprawl process is mainly concentrated in the northeast and southeast.The compactness of urban space in the whole region is low,and the nonlinear characteristics of boundary contour are enhanced.(4)Based on the simulation results of land use/cover change obtained by methods(1)?(2),the habitat quality of Guanshan Lake in 2010,2015 and 2020 was studied by using In VEST model.The results showed that the average degradation degree in 2010,2015 and 2020 were 0.0274,0.0267 and 0.0253,respectively,and the average habitat quality index was 0.2839,0.2675 and 0.2682,respectively.From 2010 to 2015,the overall habitat degradation degree and habitat quality index in Guanshan Lake area showed a downward trend.From 2015 to 2020,the degree of habitat degradation showed a downward trend,while the habitat quality index showed an upward trend.(5)based on the advance of the study area of land use/cover change research,simulation and forecasting the natural development,ecological protection,and cultivated land protection and comprehensive development view of four scenarios2025 mountain lake district landuse and cover change,and gives the corresponding scenario habitat degradation degree in the study area and the change of the habitat quality index.The simulation results show that the method of adding limited data in a single land use scenario simulation has some limitations because it cannot arrange all kinds of land as a whole,and the simulation results do not conform to the actual situation.In the comprehensive development scenario,the simulation results are more consistent with the actual situation of Guanshan Lake area due to the consideration of ecological benefits,economic benefits and social benefits,indicating that the comprehensive development scenario method is more reasonable and scientific for habitat quality assessment research. |
PDF Full Text Request