Research On The Influence Of International Oil Prices On China’s Grain Prices

In recent years,with the outbreak of the new crown epidemic,the frequent occurrence of global natural disasters,and the turbulent international situation,the price of food has been constantly fluctuating.As a strategic material,the price changes of food have attracted much attention.Crude oil is an important energy and material resource and the basis for the survival and development of many industries.In recent years,our country’s dependence on foreign crude oil has continued to increase.In 2021,the foreign dependence on crude oil will reach 72%.Crude oil and grain are both bulk commodities.With the deepening of grain financialization and energization,the connection between the two is increasingly close.Based on this,this paper aims to study the impact mechanism of international oil prices on domestic grain prices,and the impact of changes in international oil prices on domestic grain prices and the prices of various grain crops..This paper adopts a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods to study the transmission path of international oil prices to domestic food prices,and through the Sobel test method to verify agricultural production costs(cost path),international food prices(trade path),price level(currency path)mediating effects of the three variables,and found that the mediating effects of all three were significant.Secondly,by constructing TVP-VAR model and impulse response function,this paper studies the impact of international oil price changes on domestic grain prices and the prices of different grain crops.Through empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The transmission paths of international oil prices to domestic food prices are divided into three paths:cost,trade,and currency.The mediating effects of the three are 25.59%,20.21%,and 10.88%,respectively.The mediating effect is the largest,followed by the mediating effect of trade,and the smallest mediating effect of money.(2)The impact of changes in international oil prices on domestic grain prices is obviously time-varying,and the impact of changes in international oil prices at high prices is greater than at low prices.(3)Changes in international oil prices have different impacts on domestic grain prices in different lag periods,with significant short-and medium-term impacts and zero long-term impacts.(4)Changes in international oil prices have different impacts on the prices of different grain crops,and the impact on oil crops is greater than that on non-oil crops.Based on the research conclusions of this paper,this paper proposes to improve the crude oil price monitoring and early warning system,complete emergency plans;improve the grain industry structure,develop agriculture according to local conditions;increase agricultural subsidies to stabilize agricultural costs;optimize grain import and export;stabilize prices and other suggestions to stabilize grain prices.