Land Use Scenario Simulation And Ecosystem Service Prediction In Shandong Province

Food security is facing a great threat due to the outbreak of climate change and the COVID-19.Meanwhile,along with the development of economy and society,anthropogenic activities represented by urbanization have induced the degradation of the natural ecosystems.It is urgent for decision-makers to come up with reasonable proposals to cope with destruction of habitats,loss of biodiversity.Therefore,with the limitation of land resources in Shandong Province,how to reasonably allocate the elements of the life community,design land system management plans to meet the needs of future development,meet the needs of the growing population,ensure food security,and achieve sustainable development is of great significance.This research analyzed the changing characteristics of land use pattern in Shandong Province in the past by methods of transfer matrix analysis and dynamic degree calculation,and revealed the distribution and allocation of various elements of life community in Shandong Province.The CLUMondo model was used to simulate the land use of Shandong Province in 2035 based on the land use and land cover data from 2005 to 2015.Four scenarios were set up for the simulation,including Trend,Food security,Conservation and Coordination.The land use distribution of each scenario in 2035 was predicted in the model.Next,based on InVEST model,the carbon storage and habitat quality of Shandong Province under different scenarios in 2035 were quantitatively evaluated,and the development differences of ecosystem services under different scenarios were predicted.The main results and conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2015,the land use pattern in Shandong Province changed greatly,and the area of construction land expanded greatly.The annual change rate and dynamic degree value of construction land were both the largest,indicating that the urbanization process was accelerated.In the process of construction land expansion,construction land was mostly based on the original location and radiates to the periphery,thus the land use types adjacent to the construction land were mainly affected.Besides,the land use types mainly occupied by construction land were cropland.During this decade,the cropland area of Shandong Province was reduced,and the urbanization process posed a threat to the agricultural development of the main grain-producing areas.Therefore,in the simulation of future scenarios,we should focus on urbanization process and food security.(2)The results of CLUMondo model simulation showed that under the Trend scenario of 2035,cropland area would continue to shrink significantly and be mainly converted to construction land.The process of urbanization would intensify,the area of forest land and water would shrink,the ecological environment would be affected,and food security would be difficult to be guaranteed.In the Food Security scenario,in order to achieve the goal of food production,the protection of cropland was strengthened.However,the expansion of cropland also leaded to the reduction of other land use types,such as water area and forest,which were not conducive to the realization of ecological protection goals.In the Conservation scenario,land use types such as forest land,grassland,and water area remained stable,but cropland area and crop production were affected,which were not conducive to food security.In the Coordination scenario,the goal of ecological protection was achieved on the premise of ensuring food security,and the adverse effects of food security and ecological protection were’neutralized’,which was conducive to the realization of sustainable development.(3)The Coordination scenario integrated the advantages of Ecological protection scenario and Food security scenario,and obtained the highest amount of carbon storage(1.50 billion ton)among the four scenarios.Although the value of habitat was not the highest,it also reconciled the disadvantages of the two extreme scenarios,and obtained a better habitat quality value.Correlation analysis between habitat quality and carbon storage showed that these two ecosystem services are of synergistic relationship.Decision-makers should take these two ecosystem services in consideration when implement ecological planning and management under the guidance of life community theory,in order to obtain better natural resource configuration.Through the analysis of land use distribution pattern in Shandong Province,this research revealed the changing characteristics of land use in Shandong Province,and clarified the importance of food security and urbanization.Through the scenario analysis of the futures of the simulations by using CLUMondo and InVEST models,the impact of life community was quantitatively evaluated,which provided a practical case for ecological restoration and management and planning of land system with the life community theory.This research is of great value for ecological environment optimization and agricultural sustainable development.