Research On Credit Risk Of ListedCompanies In China’s Chemical Industry

As we all know,China’s credit risk management system is still in the stage of establishment and development,and its supporting systems and technologies are not mature.With the change of the world economic pattern and the sustainable development of China’s economy as the second largest economy in the world,The research and improvement of the risk management system has become extremely important and urgent.In recent years,with the continuous development of the financial market,financial products emerge in endlessly,and the financial risk also increases。Vigorously developing the measurement of credit risk is the basis and core of preventing and controlling credit risk in banking and other industries.The establishment of credit risk evaluation system can more effectively manage credit risk,and also provide a more reliable basis for financial institutions to evaluate the credit risk of enterprises in various industriesKMV model takes the financial data of listed enterprises and relevant data in the stock market as input values,calculates the default distance through the model formula,and obtains the expected default probability through the default distance,so as to measure and predict the credit risk of listed enterprises.The first chapter of this paper expounds the background and significance of the development of credit risk,then summarizes the development of credit risk in China and the west,and makes a comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of various credit risks and their applicability in China.According to the comparison of previous credit measurement methods,KMV model can predict credit risk more effectively and accurately.Based on the research of previous scholars,this paper appropriately modifies the relevant parameters of KMV model to make it more in line with China’s economic situation and development,selects the more representative listed enterprises in the chemical industry as a sample,and calculates the predicted default probability of each enterprise by using KMV model,After the comparative analysis of the data of the sample group and the control group,the usability of KMV model in credit risk measurement is verified.The results show that the expected default probability of ST and*ST listed companies is significantly higher than that of other companies,and it also confirms that the revised KMV model can better predict the credit risk of companies.This paper believes that the modified KMV model has a good risk measurement effect on China’s listed chemical enterprises,and can be used to predict the credit risk of listed enterprises in advance.Based on the above argumentation and analysis,this paper puts forward some suggestions:China should speed up the establishment of personal credit record system and the improvement of relevant mechanisms.The state and government should vigorously develop credit rating agencies.The government should strengthen the advocacy of citizens’ personal credit risk awareness and speed up the establishment and improvement of China’s credit system andstrengthen the promotion of KMV model to other industries.