Ecological Safety Evaluation And Evolution Trend Analysis In Gansu Province

As”The Belt and Road Initiative”development strategy is advancing,the economic development in Northwest China is becoming more and more important to China’s regional development strategy.The ecological development of Gansu province is an important part of the ecological security in the Northwest China.It plays an extremely important role in safeguarding national security and formulating ecological safety strategy.Therefore,this paper analyzes the ecological security problems in Gansu Province,evaluates its current situation,and puts forward the countermeasures and strategies to improve the ecological security,so as to provide a reference basis for the ecological security construction of the western development and contribute to the overall ecological construction and development of our country.Aiming at the current situation of fragile ecological environment,serious damage and poor self-healing ability in Gansu Province,this paper uses the symbiotic development theory of social economy and natural ecology,combined with the characteristic index method and index system method,Panel data of 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2019 were selected as research samples,closely related to the nature of ecological security,and establishes a socio-economic natural ecology(L-V)symbiosis model,which covers social economy The DPSIR index system of ecological security of environmental capacity and natural ecology,uses the entropy weight method to evaluate the ecological security situation of Gansu Province and local cities and prefectures,and analyzes the causes of the influencing problems.Finally,the grey prediction model is used to analyze the evolution trend of ecological security in Gansu Province,so as to provide reference for promoting the healthy and sustainable development of ecology in Gansu Province.Main research conclusion:(1)the symbiosis theory is introduced into the ecological security research has feasibility in gansu province,in addition,combined with the feature of index system method and index method to establish the characteristic index of ecological significance,double characteristic index of accurate analysis according to the natural ecology and the symbiotic ecological safety and state of each prefecture,gansu province,and trace the cause of the problem.(2)From the perspective of time evolution,the ecological security of Gansu province has been improved obviously,and the ecological carrying capacity has been comprehensively improved.In addition,although the social and economic development index fluctuates,the overall trend is rising,indicating that the social economy of Gansu Province has been improved,but compared with the first two indices,the improvement is slower and the fluctuation is larger.From the perspective of spatial pattern,the evolution pattern of ecological security varies greatly among prefecture-level cities and prefectures in Gansu Province.(3)From the results of the evolution trend,the ecological security of Gansu Province will improve significantly in the next five years.However,the ultimate goal of studying ecological security evaluation and prediction is not to get a result,but to implement a feasible safeguard countermeasure,and to arouse the attention and protection of the society to ecological security.Therefore,in view of the above analysis,in order to achieve the coordination and symbiosis of the two sub-systems of social economy and natural ecology,the corresponding suggestions are put forward to provide some reference for relevant departments in Gansu Province to make ecological security protection decisions.