Analysis On The Default Of State Owned Enterprise Bonds

Since the reform and opening up,with the rapid development of China’s economy,China’s bond market is also growing and improving.At present,it has become the second largest bond market in the world.However,due to the government’s "backwardness" of enterprises,the bond market has been "rigid cash".But in recent years,GDP of China The growth rate is slowing down and the pressure of macroeconomic downturn is increasing.In order to further promote the supply side structural reform in China,the state constantly introduces reform measures to integrate relevant industries.Some enterprises with backward capacity or in recession period have been constantly releasing credit risks,and credit risk in China’s bond market has begun to erupt intensively.After the breach of "11 Tian Wei MTN2" bond broke the "rigid cash" in 2014,the default of state-owned enterprise bonds in China has been growing rapidly in quantity and amount.Under this background,the importance of the study on the default of state-owned enterprise bonds is self-evident.This thesis introduces the development and default of state-owned enterprise bonds in recent years.It is found that the issuance trend of state-owned enterprise bonds in China is developing rapidly,and the bond default events occur frequently.The number,amount and number of state-owned enterprises involved are increasing.The risk of state-owned enterprise bond default cannot be ignored.In addition,the default of foreign enterprises’ bonds presents some characteristics: the underdeveloped areas are the high risk areas of state-owned enterprise bond default,and the industries that breach the contract also have strong concentration.Based on the above background,this thesis uses literature research method,comparative analysis method,qualitative and quantitative analysis method,takes the listed state-owned enterprise Salt Lake Industry Group Company Limited as the research case,analyzes and compares the reasons for the default of bonds and the changes of credit risk of Salt Lake Industry Group Company Limited and draws general conclusions and puts forward corresponding suggestions.First,this thesis introduces the basic situation and the process of bond default of Salt Lake Industry Co.,Ltd.,and arranges the following measures for the breach of the contract.Then,the thesis analyzes the reasons for the breach of Salt Lake Industry Group Company Limited bond.This thesis analyzes the macro level and the company’s own situation respectively.The macro level includes the slowdown of macro-economic growth,tight refinancing environment,industry reasons and policy influence.The reasons of the company include insufficient investment in the early stage,lack of blind investment,insufficient risk control ability and increased financial risk,which lead to the formation of a huge company The big loss eventually leads to the default of the company bonds.Then,the credit risk level of the company in recent years is measured by using the Z-score Model and the modified KMV model.The comparison between the measurement results of Z-score Model and the modified KMV model and the rating results of credit rating companies shows that the Z-score Model is more sensitive to the credit risk measurement of the company,and the volatility of the modified KMV model is greater,and the credit rating has a real situation for the company at that time The fixed lag can not objectively reflect the company’s repayment capacity at that time,and the effectiveness of the rating results is poor,so it can not give investors warning.Finally,the thesis puts forward some suggestions for market regulators,companies and investors respectively.Regulators should speed up the improvement of the supervision mechanism of rating agencies and the mechanism of debt default treatment;Salt Lake Industry Group Company Limited should reasonably formulate the company development strategy,maintain reasonable financial structure and strengthen the company risk management;investors should strengthen the risk identification ability and pay attention to the willingness of external support of the enterprise.