Carbon Neutralization Destruction Effect Of Global Value Chain Center Transfer

The growing and transforming global value chains(GVC)have largely reshaped the economic pattern of countries and changed their carbon dioxide emissions.Decoupling the global value chain from carbon emissions is crucial to achieving global carbon neutrality and sustainable economic development.A basic problem is to understand the changing role of global value chains in global carbon dioxide emissions.Although more and more countries around the world have made carbon neutralization commitments,there is still a lack of empirical research on whether carbon transfer will occur in the process of achieving carbon neutralization goals in different countries.Therefore,this thesis constructs the global value chain production network(GVC production network)at the national(regional)industry level,incorporates the centrality index of GVC production network,calculates the pollution terms of trade(PTT)of various countries from 2000 to 2018,and evaluates the impact and channels of GVC production network status on the implied carbon emission conditions in trade.Taking the United States as the reference object,this thesis also verifies the carbon neutralization destruction effect of GVC production network center transfer.The findings are as follows :(1)Each unit increase in the centrality of GVC production network of a country(region)will reduce the terms of trade of pollution by 0.06 units,that is,the upgrading of the status of GVC production network will significantly reduce carbon emissions,improve the domestic environment of the country,and contribute to the realization of carbon neutrality.(2)Taking the United States as the reference object,the change of the centrality of GVC production network in each country(region)relative to the United States also reduces the change of the terms of trade of pollution relative to the United States by about 0.06 percentage points at the significance level of 5%,which is the direct evidence that the shift of the center of GVC production network leads to the shift of pollution.(3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that developed countries transfer pollution to developing countries with the upgrading of GVC production network status,and the improvement of GVC production network status has a significantly stronger effect on the terms of trade of pollution for industries with high R&D intensity than other industries with R&D intensity.(4)The impact channel test results show that the transfer of GVC production network center can lead to the transfer of carbon pollution through four channels: deindustrialization,improving R&D technology,improving the level of environmental regulation and strengthening foreign direct investment.(5)Taking the "the Belt and Road" as an exogenous event,this thesis uses did to discuss the impact of trade liberalization on the economic and environmental benefits of acceding countries.The results show that after joining the "the Belt and Road",the status of GVC production network of new member countries will be improved,and the terms of pollution trade will be significantly reduced.It proves that the "the Belt and Road" initiative does not pose a threat of pollution transfer to acceding countries,and will not make acceding countries a pollution paradise for China.Based on the above,this thesis puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from six aspects: technological innovation,industrial structure,environmental policy,foreign investment,in-depth promotion of the "the Belt and Road" and global cooperation.