Research On The Spatial And Temporal Evolution Characteristics Of Ecological Vulnerability And Its Influencing Factors In Shenyang City Based On SRP Model

Since the reform and opening up,China’s ecological environment has been increasingly affected by rapid industrialization and population urbanization,with increasing ecological vulnerability and deteriorating ecosystem quality and stability.Faced with the deteriorating ecological environment,how to coordinate and resolve the conflicts between industrial upgrading,urban expansion and environmental protection,and to grasp the balance between economic and social development and ecological civilization construction are the keys to China’s future high-quality economic development.A comprehensive and accurate assessment of ecological vulnerability of large and medium-sized cities and a targeted governance path for ecological protection of large and medium-sized cities are of great practical significance for achieving sustainable regional development.Based on this,this paper takes Shenyang,an important central city in northeast China,as the research area,and constructs an ecological vulnerability assessment of Shenyang based on the "sensitivity-resilience-pressure degree" model,selecting 13 indicators such as elevation,slope,soil erosion,etc.from two dimensions of regional natural endowment and socio-economic development.The spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang were further investigated by using spatial autocorrelation and geographic detector models,and the CA-Markov model was applied to predict the ecological vulnerability of Shenyang in 2025.The CA-Markov model was used to predict the development of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang in the future 2025,with a view to providing policy references for the optimization of regional ecological patterns and high-quality economic development in large and medium-sized cities.The main findings are as follows:(1)The distribution of land use pattern in Shenyang has obvious spatial heterogeneity,with arable land being the main utilization type and widely distributed;followed by construction land,mainly concentrated in Heping District,Shenhe District,Dadong District,Huanggu District and Tiexi District in the main urban area in the central-eastern part of Shenyang;forest land has the second largest proportion,mainly concentrated in the junction of Kangping County and Faku County,where the elevation is higher,and the eastern boundary of Shenyang New District,Hunnan District and From 2010 to 2020,the proportion of arable land is the largest,but decreases year by year;the area of forest land,construction land and bare land continues to increase;the area of grassland and water area increases first and then decreases.(2)The ecological vulnerability of Shenyang is in a mildly fragile state in the three periods of 2010,2015 and 2020,and the ecological vulnerability indices are 0.255,0.262 and0.256 in 2010,2015 and 2020,respectively,with an overall trend of rising and then falling.In general,the ecological vulnerability of Shenyang city shows a spatially changing trend of enhancing from south to north and from west to east,with extreme vulnerability and severe vulnerability mainly concentrated in the main urban areas in the central-eastern part,etc.,and slight vulnerability and mild vulnerability mainly located in the southwestern area with good natural environment and less human interference.(3)There are significant differences in ecological vulnerability indices of 13 districts and counties in Shenyang.The ecological vulnerability of Shenhe District,Heping District,Tiexi District and Dadong District is in the state of extreme vulnerability,while Huanggu District in2015 evolves from predominantly extreme vulnerability in 2010 to severe vulnerability,and then converts back to extreme vulnerability in 2020,and the mean value of vulnerability index decreases and increases;Hunnan District in 2015 converts from moderate to severe vulnerability,and then converts back to moderate vulnerability in 2020;Kangping County and Yuhong District remained in moderate vulnerability;Faku County switched from moderate vulnerability to mild vulnerability in 2020,with a lighter degree of vulnerability;Shenbei New District switched from mild to moderate vulnerability in 2015,with an increased degree of vulnerability;Xinmin City remained in mild vulnerability,while Liaozhong District switched from mild vulnerability to mild vulnerability and then back to mild vulnerability;Sujiatun District switched to mild vulnerability from 2015,with an increased The ecological vulnerability index value increases.(4)The results of the global Moran’s I scatter distribution show that the global Moran’s index(Morgan’s I)of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang in 2010,2015 and 2020 are 0.867,0.813 and 0.841,respectively,and the p-values are all less than or equal to 0.05,with high significance,which indicates that ecological vulnerability in Shenyang City does not occur randomly,but has positive correlation in space with obvious positive clustering characteristics.Spatially,in Liaozhong district,Xinmin city and Sujiatun district,patches with low ecological vulnerability are spatially clustered,resulting in maintaining the regional ecological vulnerability at a low level;on the contrary,the main city center,Yuhong district,Hunnan district and Shenyang North New District are mainly affected by patches with high ecological vulnerability;while Kangping county and Faku county are transformed from high high clustering areas to non-significant areas,and there is a trend of ecological vulnerability turning good.(5)The results of geographic detectors showed that compared with the role of single factor,the ecological vulnerability of Shenyang city area was more likely to be influenced by the interaction between factors,and NDVI,economic density and nighttime light intensity were found to be the key driving factors of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang city.In view of this,the ecological construction development about Shenyang should be considered comprehensively,and the improvement of a single environmental problem should not be the ultimate goal of ecological construction,and the construction of regional ecological environment optimization should be promoted in a coordinated manner while responding positively to the ecological fragility of key regions.(6)The CA-Markov model predicts better results,as shown by the ecological vulnerability results in 2025,the area shares of slightly vulnerable,mildly vulnerable,moderately vulnerable,severely vulnerable and extremely vulnerable are 28.38%,43.58%,19.74%,5.42% and 2.88%,respectively.The ecological vulnerability of Shenyang will increase in 2025 with the area of slightly vulnerable and extremely vulnerable areas,and the area share of slightly,mildly and moderately vulnerable areas will remain high.If the negative human interference is reduced and active and effective measures for ecological protection and restoration are taken,the ecosystem gradually improves and the ecological vulnerability diminishes;on the contrary,if the environmental problems of the ecosystem are not given sufficient attention and the ecosystem continues to be destroyed,the ecologically fragile areas will increase.