The Impact Of "Carbon Reduction" Policy On The Employment Of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises

Since the reform and opening up 40 years ago,China ’s fossil energy consumption is high,energy use efficiency is low,extensive economic growth model has caused serious environmental pollution,and the rapid industrialization process has accelerated the consumption demand for energy.With the increase of industrial carbon dioxide emissions,the problem of carbon emissions is becoming more and more serious.In 2006,it became the world ’s largest carbon emitter,growing at an annual rate of about 6%.In 2016,it exceeded the total carbon emissions of the United States and the European Union.Aware of the seriousness of the current carbon emission problem,the government set energy-saving targets and introduced corresponding measures.The national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" sets energy-saving targets for unit GDP energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions that are 16%and 17%lower than those in 2010.Through the implementation of the " ten thousand enterprises energy-saving and low-carbon action plan "(referred to as the " carbon reduction " policy)for high-energy-consuming industrial enterprises,transportation and other key energy-consuming units,energy consumption constraints are imposed to provide important support for the realization of the " Twelfth Five-Year Plan "energy-saving targets.In addition,measures such as improving energy-saving regulations,increasing fiscal and taxation financial policy support,improving enterprise energy-saving reward and punishment mechanism,and strengthening public supervision of enterprises have ensured the smooth realization of the energy-saving goal of the " carbon reduction " policy,effectively improved China ’s energy use efficiency,promoted the progress of energy conservation and environmental protection work,helped to solve the problem of carbon emission constraints,and was of certain significance for China to achieve the " double carbon" goal as soon as possible.The current spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia has led to a slowdown in the global economy,and the downward pressure on China ’s economy has continued to increase.The employment situation of manufacturing enterprises is not optimistic.In 2018,for the first time,the " six stable " job requirements were put forward,and the stable employment was clearly ranked first;the " 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2035 long-term goal outline " also indicate employment priority,increase the number of jobs,and adjust the employment structure;the 2022 government work report emphasizes that " fiscal and taxation,finance and other policies should be implemented around employment priority ".In this context,as a representative energy-saving policy in China(Tang et al.,2019),the " carbon reduction " policy on the one hand helps to reduce the adverse impact of enterprise production on the environment,encourage enterprise innovation(Deng et al.,2021),promote green transformation and sustainable development of enterprises,help enterprises expand their scale and increase labor demand;on the other hand,it will increase production costs,bring liquidity constraints to enterprises,weaken market competitiveness,and is not conducive to employment.So in the context of " stable employment " proposed by the state,what impact will the " carbon reduction " policy have on the employment of Chinese manufacturing enterprises?What is its microeconomic effect?What is the employment adjustment direction of manufacturing enterprises with different characteristics in the face of " carbon reduction " policy?The scientific answer to this series of questions is not only conducive to a deeper understanding of the impact of " carbon reduction" policies on the employment of manufacturing enterprises in the " stable employment " stage,but also has practical significance for more accurately evaluating the implementation effect of China’s " carbon reduction " policies and achieving high-quality economic development under the " double carbon " goal.Based on the data of China’s manufacturing listed companies from 2006 to 2020,this paper takes the implementation of the "carbon reduction" policy as the exogenous policy impact to deeply investigate the impact of the "carbon reduction"policy on the employment of China’s manufacturing enterprises and its mechanism.The research results show that the "carbon reduction" policy significantly inhibits the employment of manufacturing enterprises in China.After a series of model validity and robustness tests,the research conclusion is still valid.The mechanism test results show that the "carbon reduction" policy mainly suppresses employment through output effect,and promotes employment through innovation compensation effect,but the output effect is greater than innovation compensation effect,which ultimately leads to the reduction of employment in manufacturing enterprises.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the "carbon reduction" policy has a more obvious inhibitory effect on the employment of non-state-owned manufacturing enterprises with high financing constraints,low government subsidies,heavy pollution industries,weak cost transfer ability and low regional financial development level.The above research conclusions provide new empirical evidence for understanding the relationship between the "carbon reduction" policy and the employment of manufacturing enterprises,and also provide new inspiration for the formulation and implementation of environmental policies in China under the background of the"double carbon" goal.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)this paper uses the difference-in-differences method to study the impact of the "carbon reduction" policy on the employment of Chinese manufacturing enterprises,which better avoids the endogenous problem and reduces the resulting estimation bias.At the same time,the validity of the difference-in-differences method is tested to ensure the applicability of the difference-in-differences method.(2)This paper not only uses the intermediary effect model to explore the specific action path of the "carbon reduction" policy on the employment of manufacturing enterprises,but also further explores the difference in the employment adjustment direction of different types of enterprises when facing the "carbon reduction" policy,providing a theoretical basis for balancing the environment and employment in the formulation and implementation of environmental policies in the future.The main shortcomings of this paper are:(1)This paper only analyzes the employment impact of manufacturing enterprises,but the "carbon reduction" policy is not only for manufacturing enterprises,but also may have an impact on the employment of enterprises in other industries.(2)The impact of "carbon reduction"policy on the employment of manufacturing enterprises is studied from the micro level,ignoring the cross sectoral and industrial mobility of labor.