| Organic solid waste pollution is one of China’s prominent environmental problems,for a long time,organic solid waste still has the phenomenon of random discarding and open burning,which has caused serious pollution to the soil environment and atmospheric environment,and at the same time makes the resources in organic solid waste cannot be effectively recovered.If the generation of organic solid waste is reduced from the source and the resource recovery of organic solid waste is realized from the end,it is not only conducive to reducing the hidden danger of pollution,but also alleviating the contradiction between resource shortage and social development.The research objects of this paper include:organic solid waste,food waste,livestock manure and urine,crop straw.In view of this,this study is guided by the theory of sustainable development and the theory of sharing economy,and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of organic solid waste are depicted with the help of auxiliary tools such as ArcGIS.Secondly,the STAPPAT model and ridge regression analysis were used to identify and quantify the influencing factors of organic solid waste.Then,based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)framework proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),different resource recovery scenarios were set to comprehensively evaluate the future resource recovery potential of China’s organic solid waste.The specific results of the study are as follows:(1)From 1980 to 2021,China’s overall organic solid waste showed a trend of"increasing to decreasing",and the overall level of food and kitchen waste generation showed a straight upward trend.The overall time trend of livestock manure and urine was similar to that of organic solid waste,while crop straw showed an overall upward trend.Moreover,the amount of organic solid waste generated in China varies across different dimensions.(2)At the national level,the regression coefficients for the proportion of food and kitchen waste in the tertiary industry,urban population,and per capita GDP are 0.614,0.474,and 0.005,respectively;In terms of livestock and poultry manure and urine,the standardized coefficients for rural population,per capita GDP in rural areas,pig manure and urine production,and the added value of the primary industry are 0.219,-0.056,0.496,and-0.06,respectively.However,the proportion of added value of the primary industry did not pass the significance test;In terms of crop straw,the standardized coefficients for rural population,per capita GDP in rural areas,and the proportion of added value in the primary industry are0.292,0.3,and 0492,respectively.The per capita GDP in rural areas did not pass the significance test.At the provincial level,there are differences in the influencing factors of the three types of organic solid waste.(3)Based on five shared socio-economic pathways,the levels of food and kitchen waste generation in China from 2022 to 2060 are:SSP5>SSP1>SSP4>SSP2>SSP3,livestock manure and urine generation levels are:SSP1>SSP2>SSP4>SSP5>SSP3,and crop straw generation levels are:SSP1>SSP5>SSP2>SSP4>SSP3.(4)The resource utilization potential of organic solid waste is enormous:in terms of food and kitchen waste,the ideal scenario can increase by approximately 17273.78-20823.06 million tons of standard coal compared to the basic scenario;In terms of animal manure and urine,compared to the basic scenario,the ideal scenario can increase fertilizer utilization by approximately 8598.04～10163.63 tons of nitrogen fertilizer,3591.42～4245.37 tons of phosphorus fertilizer,and 12466.56～14736.56 tons of potassium fertilizer;The utilization of fuel can increase the standard coal by 11950.97～14142.82 million tons.In terms of crop straw,compared to the basic scenario,the ideal scenario can increase fertilizer utilization by approximately 14670.49 to 18458.22 tons of nitrogen fertilizer,2902.99 to 3069.73 tons of phosphorus fertilizer,and 26394.22 to 33208.85 tons of potassium fertilizer.Energy utilization can increase the standard coal by 46001.28 to 57166.45 tons.The utilization of feed can increase crude protein by 78068.79～98225.10 million tons,and the crude protein carrying capacity can increase by approximately 1255545.07～1579709.90 million sheep.The potential for the utilization of basic materials and raw materials can increase by 619217.38 to 779090.97 pieces of grass bricks.Finally,based on the research results,the following four suggestions are proposed:(1)Pay attention to adapting to local conditions and formulating policies that are in line with local characteristics.(2)Advocate for a green and low-carbon lifestyle for residents,strengthen publicity for farmers,and improve corresponding laws and regulations.(3)Transform towards a sustainable development model and reach the peak of organic solid waste in China as soon as possible.(4)Improve storage and transportation facilities,and promote the resource utilization of organic solid waste. |
PDF Full Text Request