| Agriculture is a fundamental issue related to the country’s livelihood,and agriculture plays a fundamental role in the country’s economic and social development.In the past,in order to break through the real dilemma of more people and less land,the agricultural production method was relatively crude,which improved the comprehensive supply capacity of agricultural products,but also produced a wide range of agricultural surface pollution,which is difficult to manage and long-lasting,and brought great pressure to the rural ecological environment.In the current double carbon target constraints,the development of ecological recycling agriculture,the management of rural surface pollution,the development of green agriculture is the direction of China’s policy,but also the reality of agricultural development is driven.The Yangtze River basin,as an important agricultural product producing area in China,is the main agricultural production base in China,with a high degree of agricultural scale and intensification,and agricultural production activities continuously gathering in a certain geographical area.The development of agricultural agglomeration helps to improve the utilization rate of factor resources and increase the efficiency of agricultural production,but agricultural agglomeration also brings certain negative environmental externalities.What is the current level of agricultural agglomeration and the current status of agricultural surface pollution emissions in the main agricultural production areas of the Yangtze River basin? What is the effect of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural surface pollution and what is the relationship between the two? Is there a certain spatial spillover effect of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural surface pollution? These questions are of great significance for the prevention and control of agricultural surface pollution in the Yangtze River basin and the coordination of resource environment and agricultural economic growth.Based on this,this paper firstly compares the existing literature to understand the current hotspots of research on agricultural agglomeration and agricultural surface source pollution,summarizes the shortcomings of existing studies,and presents the problems of this study.Then,based on the socio-economic data and agricultural production data of 89 prefecture-level cities in the main agricultural production areas of the Yangtze River basin from 2000 to 2020,the Gini coefficient and the average industrial agglomeration index and the locational entropy index are used to measure the overall agricultural agglomeration level of the region and the agricultural agglomeration level of each prefecture-level city,and the emission of agricultural surface source pollution in each prefecture-level city is measured using the idea of inventory analysis on the basis of the comprehensive survey method.The spatial distribution,spatial association and spatial evolution trend of agricultural agglomeration and agricultural surface source pollution in the region are analyzed based on the measurement results,and the relationship between them is initially determined by using Arc Map 10.7software.Finally,a panel threshold model was established to empirically test the nonlinear relationship between agricultural agglomeration and agricultural surface source pollution by pollutant type;and based on the spatial econometric model,the spatial spillover effects of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural surface source pollution in the whole basin,upstream,midstream and downstream were empirically explored.Through the above empirical study,the main conclusions of this paper are:(1)Between 2000 and 2020,agricultural agglomeration shows a decreasing trend in general,and is mainly distributed in the area north of the Yangtze River,and has a tendency to extend southward over time.Agricultural surface pollution shows a general trend of rising and then declining,and is mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.(2)The areas with high spatial correlation of agricultural agglomeration are mainly distributed in the upstream and downstream,and the areas with high spatial correlation of agricultural surface source pollution are distributed in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.(3)During 2000-2020,the spatial trend of agricultural agglomeration in the main agricultural production areas of the Yangtze River Basin has shifted from the characteristic of high in the west and low in the east to the characteristic of roughly equal in the east and west,while the north-south direction has maintained the U-shaped characteristic of high in the middle and low in the north-south direction.(4)There is a positive single threshold effect of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural surface source pollution(NPS),chemical oxygen demand(COD),ammonia nitrogen(NH3N),total nitrogen(TN),and total phosphorus(TP),and this positive single threshold promotion effect decreases after crossing the threshold value,and comparing the effects of agricultural agglomeration on different pollutants,chemical oxygen demand and total phosphorus emissions are more sensitive to changes in agricultural agglomeration.(5)In terms of the direct effects of each control variable,agricultural production conditions(APC),agricultural population size(APS),livestock and poultry industry structure(AHS),and urbanization level(UR)all increase the emissions of agricultural surface source pollution and each component pollutant,but the upgrading of industrial structure(IS),i.e.,the increase in the proportion of value added of secondary and tertiary industries,decreases the emissions of agricultural surface source pollution and each component pollutant.emissions.(6)Basin-wide and upstream areas show positive and negative spatial spillover effects on agricultural surface pollution respectively;upstream,midstream and downstream agricultural agglomerations have positive direct effects on agricultural surface pollution,showing as midstream(0.868)> downstream(0.778)> upstream(0.566);basin-wide,upstream and downstream agricultural agglomerations have negative spatial spillover effects on agricultural surface pollution,showing as upstream(-0.868)> downstream(0.778)>upstream(0.566);basin-wide,upstream and downstream agricultural agglomerations have negative spatial spillover effects on agricultural surface pollution.In addition to the core explanatory variables,agricultural production conditions(APC)and livestock and poultry industry structure(AHS)have negative spatial spillover effects on agricultural surface pollution,while agricultural population size(APS)has positive spatial spillover effects on agricultural surface pollution,but urbanization rate(UR)and industrial structure upgrading(IS)have no significant spatial spillover effects on agricultural surface pollution.Based on the above findings,this paper proposes the following countermeasures:(1)Promote the application of modern agricultural green production technologies,reduce their application costs,and increase the adoption rate of modern agricultural green production technologies by farmers.For example,green prevention and control technology,water and fertilizer integration technology,straw bundle burning clean heating key technology,etc.,but also to promote the implementation of policy subsidies for farmers and agricultural extension personnel,strengthen research on green agricultural production technology,and enhance the training of green agricultural technology extension personnel.(2)Regulate the production and operation behavior of livestock and poultry farmers,improve the resource utilization level of livestock and poultry manure and urine,and guide farmers to take the road of green agricultural and livestock products production.For example,supervise and manage the production and operation behavior of livestock and poultry farmers,scientifically plan the prohibited areas and control the emissions of livestock farms to avoid the large-scale centralized discharge of pollutants;encourage the application of organic fertilizer made of livestock and poultry manure and improve the level of resourceful and green utilization of livestock and poultry manure;improve the market recognition of green agricultural and livestock products and guide farmers to take the path of green agricultural and livestock products production.(3)To build a cross-regional agricultural surface source pollution management system of common governance,sharing and win-win,through the identification and deciphering of interests and contradictions between different subjects,to build a collaborative governance system with the participation of government,farmers and social organizations,such as by improving the effectiveness of collaborative governance of different regional governments,improving farmers’ own sewage responsibility system,and playing the environmental publicity and education as well as supervision and management functions of social organizations to Promote the green and sustainable development of regional agriculture. |
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