Study On The Spatiotemporal Pattern And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Footprint In Shandong Provinc

With the development of industry and the intensification of human activities,climate change poses a serious threat to ecological sustainability.How to implement the sustainable development of economy under the premise of protecting the ecosystem has become a research hotspot.The ecological footprint method can directly reflect the ecological carrying capacity of energy consumption in a region.Based on the ecological footprint model,the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon footprint are quantified and its driving factors are analyzed,which is of great significance for the sustainable development of ecological environment.In this study,the county carbon footprint of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017 was calculated based on carbon emission statistics and remote sensing inversion data,and the natural capital flow and stock occupied by carbon emission absorption were calculated through the carbon footprint breadth and depth model.On this basis,the Exploratory Time-Space Data Analysis ESTDA（Exploratory time-space Data Analysis）is used to analyze the spatial pattern evolution of the county carbon footprint in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017 from the perspective of space-time interaction.The decoupling effect between ecosystem carbon load and economic growth in 137 county-level units in Shandong Province was analyzed by using the improved Tapio decoupling model.Finally,Geo Detector and Geographically Weighted Regression model were used to explore the driving mechanism of county carbon footprint in Shandong Province.The results reveal the ecological carrying capacity of energy consumption of each county-level unit in Shandong Province,which has reference significance for carbon emission reduction strategy in Shandong Province.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:（1）From the perspective of the spatio-temporal pattern of carbon emissions in the socio-economic system,the total carbon emissions in Shandong Province showed a steady rising trend from 2000 to 2017,with significant differences among counties.The center of gravity of carbon emissions experienced two stages:first eastward migration and then southwest migration;From the spatio-temporal pattern of the net primary productivity of natural ecosystems,the fluctuation range of the net primary productivity of natural ecosystems in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017 was 302.92 to 413.35g C·m^-2·a^-1,with an annual mean value of 364.99 g C·m^-2·a^-1,and the annual mean value increased.The center of gravity of the NPP is constantly shifting eastward.（2）From the temporal and spatial patterns of carbon footprint and carbon deficit,the carbon footprint area of Shandong Province increased by 14.869×10⁵km² from 2000to 2017,and the annual average was 17.171×10⁵km²,with an annual growth rate of7.04%.From 2000 to 2017,the carbon deficit area of Shandong Province increased by14.862×10⁵km²,with an annual average of 15.602×10⁵km²,with an annual growth rate of 8.20%.The area of carbon footprint and carbon deficit both increased year by year,and the average annual carbon footprint increased first and then decreased.Throughout the study period,the Chiping region has the largest carbon footprint and carbon deficit area.（3）From 2000 to 2017,county carbon footprint breadth was associated with ecosystem carbon carrying capacity,and the ecological productive land area occupied by carbon emission reached the upper limit of natural capital flow.The breadth of per capita carbon footprint in counties is higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest.The carbon footprint depth in counties was higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast.The carbon footprint depth of each county-level unit is always greater than1,indicating that the carbon ecological environment in Shandong Province has deteriorated as a whole,and natural capital flow cannot compensate for the increasing carbon emissions.Therefore,natural capital is needed to meet the needs of carbon sinks.（4）The relative length of carbon footprint showed a spatial distribution trend of higher in southeast and lower in northwest,indicating that the carbon footprint of counties in southeast Shandong was more stable than that in northwest Shandong.The carbon footprint bending degree is greater than 1,indicating that the carbon footprint of Shandong Province is greatly affected by the effect of neighborhood space and has strong spatial dependence.LISA time path moving direction results show that the positive spatial integration is more significant.The spatial and temporal transition of LISA revealed that the local regional structure of carbon footprint in Shandong Province was relatively stable.Based on the improved Tapio decoupling model,it can be seen that the decoupling type between carbon footprint and GDP changed from"expansionary negative decoupling"to"weak decoupling"and finally to"strong decoupling",and the average decoupling elasticity value of each county unit showed a downward trend.（5）Based on the single factor detection of geographical detector,it can be seen that the main driving factor of county carbon footprint change in Shandong Province from 2000to 2017 is the human factor.The interaction factor detection results show that efficiency factors∩policy factors and efficiency∩social economic factors have a strong comprehensive influence on the spatial distribution and inter-regional difference of the carbon footprint index,while the interaction between natural factors has a weak influence on the carbon footprint index.Based on the analysis of the research results of the carbon footprint influencing factors in Shandong Province based on GWR model,it can be seen that the carbon footprint pressure index and building area have the highest degree of influence on the carbon footprint area and are the main influencing factors.Other significant factors also promote the carbon footprint.