Risk Analysis And Resonance Phenomenon Research On Credit Bond Default Of State-owned Enterprise

In recent years,China’s bond market has been booming.From 2016,China has become the world’s second largest bond market.By the end of May 2022,the total scale of China’s bond market reached 139 trillion yuan,more than four times the end of 2012.Among them,the bond scale of enterprise credit category is up to 32 trillion yuan,which is a more important financing channel in our country’s bond market.Around 2018,there was a wave of defaults on credit bonds of private enterprises,and investors turned to highly rated state-owned enterprise bonds to avoid risks.However,in the context of the epidemic in 2020,a number of "dual" credit enterprises defaulted one after another,which caused a drastic shock in the bond market.Investors’ confidence in credit bonds fell sharply,and it was difficult for the market to recover from the previous state in the short term.State-owned enterprises and the cause of such default high rating will default on the market,which brings the problems such as how to find out.This paper takes the ultra-short financing bond "20 Yongmei SCP003" that defaulted in November 2020 as the case background,and uses the literature research method,case analysis method and quantitative and qualitative method to conduct an in-depth study of the default event.Exploring the reasons for the default of Yongmei Group from various macro and micro perspectives,it is found that it is mainly affected by the macroeconomic downturn and the downturn in the coal industry,and the failure of regulators and rating agencies to fulfill their responsibilities,the failure to discover the financial problems of enterprises in a timely manner,resulting in damage to investors’ rights and interests,and their own financial situation has not kept up,which has triggered a series of chain reactions.This paper also uses the Z-SCORE model to measure the credit risk of enterprises,analyzes whether there is any difference between the consolidated statement data of the enterprise and the data of the parent company’s statement,and calculates the true solvency of the enterprise based on the data of the debt repayment entity’s statement.After the default event,the issuance and refinancing of enterprises in the same industry and region were blocked,and the default risk of its upstream parent company was even more downgraded,and the direct financing of weak state-owned enterprises was also suspended due to the decline in the credibility of state-owned enterprises.Finally,it draws inspiration from the case analysis process and makes recommendations to investors,rating agencies,companies and regulators,hoping to provide ideas for the bond market to prevent such risks.