The Impact Of Relative Energy Price Changes On Carbon Emission

As China’s "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" goals are clearly proposed,how to achieve carbon emission reduction targets while maintaining stable economic growth has gradually become the focus of national policy.As one of the important paths to achieve carbon emission reduction,the substitution relationship between nonenergy factors and energy factors caused by the relative price changes began to receive more attention.Therefore,this paper studies the impact of relative price changes of energy on carbon emissions in China from the perspective of demand substitution of energy factors caused by relative price changes of energy factors.Firstly,this paper constructs the transcendental logarithmic cost function of energy,capital,and labor,and uses the seemingly unrelated regression estimation method to calculate and analyze the AES and CPE elasticity of substitution between energy factors and non-energy factors in China during 2010-2019.At the same time,the heterogeneity of the elasticity of substitution among the three industries and different regions is analyzed.China’s current self-substitution elasticity of energy factors is low,with an average value of 0.011 from 2010 to 2019,indicating that China’s demand for energy factors has a strong rigidity,the rise of energy prices has little impact on energy demand input,and it is difficult to fully realize the effect of price signals on the allocation of energy resources.In terms of alternative energy and capital relations,2010-2019 average cross elasticity of substitution between energy and capital is-0.061,there is a complementary relationship,simply by rising energy prices to push through the enterprise lifting equipment,implementation technology to upgrade the way of elements in the production of energy replacement has certain resistance,Factor price distortion and capital investment in extensive capacity expansion are the reasons why capital cannot completely replace energy.Based on the calculation of the substitution relationship between energy and nonenergy factors,this paper further obtains the substitution effect and output effect caused by the relative price change of energy through Slutsky decomposition.And put it into the empirical analysis of carbon emissions to study the impact of output effect on carbon emissions.The results show that when the output effect is negative,that is,when the relative change of energy price can reduce the demand for energy by adjusting the output of producers,every 1% increase in the absolute value of output effect will reduce carbon emissions by 0.089%,and every 1% increase in the absolute value of substitution effect will reduce carbon emissions by 0.301%.Substitution effect and output effect will have corresponding influence on carbon emission.The substitution effect has a more significant effect on carbon emissions than the output effect.Energy factor price distortions,industry development characteristics,in capital investment expansion phase,and the energy characteristic,these will affect the substitution effect and output effect,especially when the industry at the stage of expansion capital investment,rising energy prices will be accompanied by a production continued to increase,which will have inhibitory effect on carbon emission reduction.Therefore,in the policy formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction,in order to give full play to the influence of factor substitution and output effect,reform should be carried out from the aspects of factor price,capital input guidance,industrial structure upgrading and so on,to promote the substitution effect and output effect produced by energy price change to have a positive effect on carbon emissions.