Research On The Vulnerability Evaluation And Prediction Of China’s Imported LNG Maritime Transportation

As China’s demand for liquefied natural gas(LNG)is surging,the scale of China’s LNG maritime transportation trade is also increasing.When China’s LNG maritime transportation encounters risks or even interrupts,the consequences are very serious.The Sino-US trade war has had a great impact on the LNG maritime trade.Research on the vulnerability of China’s imported LNG maritime transportation will not only help solve practical problems and ensure the safety of energy supply,but also enrich the theoretical research perspective of LNG maritime transportation.At present,the research on China’s LNG maritime transportation focuses on the security,but there is a lack of research from the perspective of vulnerability.Based on the current status of LNG maritime transportation in China,this paper proposes a set of evaluation model and mechanism suitable for the vulnerability evaluation of China’s imported LNG maritime transportation.Based on the changing trend of vulnerability,combined with the impact of the Sino-US trade war,the main causes are further analyzed.(1)Based on the vulnerability theory,the evaluation index system for China’s imported LNG maritime transportation is established.Combining the internal and external environment,it conducts specific research and analysis in terms of consumption,supply and demand,transportation risk,economic,infrastructure and policy effect.By using the vulnerability evaluation framework of VSD(vulnerability scoping diagram),11 vulnerability evaluation indicators of China’s LNG maritime transportation were screened and refined from the dimensions of exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability.(2)From a quantitative perspective,the vulnerability of China’s LNG maritime transportation from 2006 to 2019 is evaluated.Based on the evaluation results,the vulnerability from 2020 to 2025 is predicted.Based on the SERV(Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability)vulnerability function model,the vulnerability of China’s LNG maritime transport has dropped by more than 80% from the highest value.Taking 2013 as the cut-off point,it shows a trend of first rising and then falling.Taking 2013 as the demarcation point,it shows a trend of fluctuating up first and then falling.The main driving factor in the rising stage of vulnerability is exposure risk,and the falling stage is adaptive capacity.(3)Combined with the specific scenarios of the Sino-US trade war,the future development and changes of the vulnerability of China’s imported LNG maritime transportation are analyzed.The reduction of transportation and supply disruptions between China and the United States will have little impact on the vulnerability of China’s LNG maritime transportation in the short term.Based on future vulnerability scenario analysis,in order to achieve trade balance,it is necessary to expand the scale of LNG trade between China and the United States.In the long run,Sino-US LNG trade cooperation has reduced the risk of transportation sources,increased the diversity of imports,and improved the supply pattern,which is conducive to reducing the vulnerability of China’s LNG maritime transportation.The vulnerability theory is used to study the safety of China’s imported LNG maritime transportation as a whole,which enriches the theoretical research perspective of LNG maritime transportation.The analysis of the impact of each stage of the Sino-US trade war will help optimize the LNG trade strategy from the perspective of national strategy and ensure the security of China’s energy supply.