| With the rapid development of the economy,China’s total energy consumption has gradually surpassed that of the United States,becoming the world’s number one energy consumer,with crude oil accounting for the largest share of consumption.As a basic raw material for a country’s economic development,crude oil plays a crucial role in agriculture and industrial production,and the fluctuation of crude oil prices will have a serious impact on China’s economic development.The existing literature on the impact of international crude oil and China’s economy are based on the normal economic market,and there are almost gaps in the research on the transmission mechanism between economic variables in different economic markets,so it is necessary to conduct a systematic study on the transmission mechanism between international crude oil and economic variables when the industry economic market is in different periods.In this paper,based on the price data of WTI and Shewan’s closing indices of each industry from 2016.2.16 to 2021.4.30,the causal relationship between international crude oil prices and the prices of Chinese industry indices at different periods in China’s industry economic market is studied,using international crude oil(WTI)and Chinese industry indices as nodes,inter-industry closeness as side weights,and introducing quartiles into the complex The quantile complex network model is constructed based on the recession and boom periods of Chinese industries.At the same time,QVAR model sets that can directly reflect the magnitude of influence among variables are constructed to analyze the magnitude of influence among variables under different quantile points,and the transmission direction and significant degree of influence of crude oil price fluctuations on China’s stock industry indices under various market environments are clearly dissected to help investors make more rational investment decisions.The study found that.(1)The transmission mechanisms of WTI and Chinese industry index prices in industry recession and boom periods are different.the transmission paths of WTI price changes to some industry index prices in industry recession and boom periods are consistent;the transmission paths of WTI price changes to another part of industry index prices in Chinese industry recession and boom periods are different,and it is necessary to pay more attention to such industries.(2)In the quantile complex network of WTI and Chinese industry index prices,the importance of each node is different.In the industry recession transmission network,the topological parameter values of non-ferrous metals and electronics industries are higher,while in the industry boom transmission network,the topological parameter values of construction materials and transportation are higher,which means that they are located in extremely important positions in their respective transmission networks,and their price changes are easily affected by the price changes of other industries and also have an impact on the prices of other industries.Therefore,we should try to ensure the stability of the prices of important industries and effectively reduce the price fluctuations of other industries.(3)The direction and significance of the impact of WTI on the prices of Chinese industry indices differ at different quantile points,and there are lagging effects in the transmission process;the price changes of WTI have a positive impact on directly transmitted industries and some indirectly transmitted industries,and a negative correlation on some indirectly transmitted industries.Among them,transportation,chemical,textile and apparel and household appliances are significantly affected by WTI price changes in all quartiles,while other industries are only significantly affected during economic downturns or boom markets.Investors should pay attention to the economic situation and implement differentiated industry investment strategies. |
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