A Study On The Driving Factors And Decoupling Effects Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions In Gansu Province

Climate change is a global issue facing humanity,and the sharp increase in carbon emissions has intensified the greenhouse effect.Glacier melting,frequent disasters,and rising temperatures are affecting all aspects of human life.Agriculture is influenced by both climate change and climate change.On the one hand,the agricultural system is extremely fragile and vulnerable to the impact of climate change.The annual reduction in global production of rice,wheat,and soybeans due to climate change is approximately 3 million tons,9 million tons,and 2 million tons.Climate change can explain 32%-39% of global food production fluctuations.On the other hand,the increase in population has led to the expansion of agricultural production,increased greenhouse gas emissions,and exacerbated climate change.At least one fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture,including farming,forestry,fisheries,and animal husbandry.Agriculture is not only the main source of greenhouse gas emissions,but also a pillar industry for national development.In the context of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the entire society,the low-carbon transformation of agriculture has become a hot topic of industry attention.How to achieve agricultural emission reduction goals and achieve sustainable development is an urgent problem that needs to be solved.Gansu Province is the main production base for grain crops and animal husbandry in China,and the development of low-carbon agriculture in Gansu Province is of great significance for promoting the achievement of the "dual carbon" goal.Based on the current development status of planting and animal husbandry in Gansu Province,this article reasonably constructed the agricultural carbon emission system in Gansu Province,and selected 17 agricultural carbon sources to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province from 2005 to 2020;Secondly,the characteristics of carbon emission changes,structural changes,and carbon emission intensity changes in agriculture in Gansu Province were studied from a temporal and spatial perspective.On this basis,the LMDI model is used to study the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province,and the TAPIO decoupling model is used to study the decoupling effect between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic development.The specific research results of this article are as follows:In terms of total carbon emissions: From 2005 to 2020,the total agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province showed a fluctuating upward trend,with the largest increase in carbon emissions from animal husbandry at 42.39%,while carbon emissions from planting increased by 35.57% during this period.As of 2020,carbon emissions from planting and animal husbandry accounted for 29.15% and 70.85% of agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province,respectively.In terms of total carbon emissions,the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province has been decreasing year by year,with a decrease of 37.75%;There are certain spatial differences in agricultural carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity among 14 cities in Gansu Province.Cities with animal husbandry as the main industry and a large proportion of grain crop planting area have higher carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,while cities with relatively developed industries have lower agricultural carbon emission intensity.In terms of carbon emission structure: The proportion of carbon emissions from animal husbandry to agricultural carbon emissions is about 60%,with cattle and sheep as the main carbon sources,accounting for 55.44% and 34.77% of the carbon emissions from animal husbandry,respectively.Planting accounts for about 40% of agricultural carbon emissions,with fertilizers and agricultural film as the main carbon sources,accounting for 39% and 24.24% respectively;In terms of driving factors: Through LMDI model analysis,it is found that the total effect is on the rise,agricultural production efficiency factors and agricultural labor factors have inhibitory effects on agricultural carbon emissions,and agricultural economic development level and industrial structure factors have a positive driving effect on agricultural carbon emissions.Among them,agricultural production efficiency factors have the strongest inhibitory effect on carbon emissions,while agricultural economic development level factors have the strongest driving effect on carbon emissions,making them the main driving factor for the increase in agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province.In terms of decoupling effect: From 2005 to 2020,there were three types of decoupling states between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in Gansu Province: weak decoupling,expansion linkage,and strong decoupling,showing a trend of fluctuation period-strong decoupling period-weak decoupling period.Overall,weak decoupling and strong decoupling were the main forms,gradually transitioning from weak decoupling to strong decoupling,and the decoupling state was good.This article provides a comprehensive and comprehensive analysis of agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province.Based on the research findings,suggestions for reducing carbon emissions in agriculture in Gansu Province are proposed as follows: 1)Promote the application of technology to enhance the low-carbon development level of livestock and poultry breeding industry;2)Improve the efficiency of agricultural material utilization and reduce the input of agricultural materials per unit;3)Respect regional differences and develop carbon reduction measures tailored to local conditions;4)Based on resource advantages,actively adjust the agricultural industrial structure;5)Increase technological innovation efforts and improve agricultural production efficiency.