Assessment And Prediction Of Ecological Carrying Capacity In Qilian Mountain National Park

The Qilian Mountain National Park(QMNP)is located in the arid region of northwest China.It is well known that the QMNP not only plays an important role in protecting the integrity and authenticity of mountain ecosystems but also is vital for maintaining the ecological security of the Hexi Corridor.The region has been plagued by a variety of ecological issues,such as glacier melting,grassland degradation,intensified soil erosion,and biodiversity decline,due to the combination of regional climate change and human activity.The ecological security and sustainable development of the QMNP are in grave peril.An urgent matter has arisen to contemplate how to construct an appropriate evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity based on natural elements.Investigating the ecological carrying capacity(ECC)spatiotemporally,the QMNP’s economic and social development must be examined.Accordingly,this paper takes the QMNP as the research object.The DPSIR framework was employed to construct the ECC evaluation index system,based on satellite remote sensing and socio-economic statistics from 2000 to 2019 of the various subregions of the national park.The DPSIR model has been widely used to establish cause-effect relationships among social,economic and environmental systems.We also quantified ECC and assessed its current status.To offer suggestions on improving ECC,the spatiotemporal pattern of ECC and its major influencing factors in recent two decades were examined and then the potential trend in ECC in the next ten years was predicted.This study is beneficial for the management and construction of the QMNP.The results showed that the multiyear averaged ECC was low in the south and west but was high in central and eastern regions,having significant differences in each subregion.The spatial distribution of ECC was largely constrained by soil resources,ecosystem quality,land use and cover,and water environment status.The study period revealed that ECC’s standing was quite poor,demonstrating the clear contrast between socio-economic growth and eco-environmental preservation.From2000 to 2014,the ECC saw a decrease,mainly due to overgrazing,farmland expansion,and a severe drought that adversely affected habitat quality and ecosystem function.However,the ECC increased significantly from 2014 to 2019,because of a warm moist climate and the strict implementation of eco-environmental protection policies.At present,the factors driving the temporal variation of ECC in the national park varied in space,while the changes of ecosystem composition and services were the main driving forces for the inter-annual variation of ECC.With the construction and development of the national park,the ECC will continue to increase in most areas from 2020 to 2029,but the increasing rate may slow down.The primary reason was that the impact of ecological protection measures on ECC decreased with time in contrast to the growing effect of socio-economic factors.That is to say,if we fail to reconcile the contradiction between eco-environmental protection and socio-economic development,even the area with high ECC now is likely to experience a decline in ECC in the next ten years.The findings of this paper provide evidence about the effectiveness of government policies in increasing regional ECC and further call for region-specific management strategies aimed at altering ecosystem composition and function in the QMNP.The construction and management of the national park should consider how to integrate it into the overall development of the region rather than the geographical location.By developing the dynamic monitoring of eco-environmental factors,protecting water and soil resources,upgrading industrial structure,promoting rural labor transfer and speeding up ecological migration,the decision-makers will achieve the coordinated development of economy,resource and environment.