The Impact Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On APEC Consumer Price Index

As a non-renewable resource,oil is considered as a precious wealth in the industry.It plays a vital role in the survival and development of an economy and affects all aspects of an economy.The price fluctuation will also have different degrees of impact on the macro economy of each economy,and then affect the stable development of the world economy.When international oil prices fluctuate,different industries demand for oil is different,so to an economy’s oil market,international oil price fluctuations will produce different degree of impact on industries,which affect the final products and services,which will be reflected in the economy’s consumer price index,the consumer price index is a measure of an economy’s price level and consumption ability,so the international oil price fluctuations on the economy consumer price index has theoretical value and practical significance.Based on the above background,this thesis summarizes the impact of previous international oil price fluctuations on the economy,and further explores the causes of international oil price fluctuations,as well as its short-term and long-term impact on the consumer price index.This thesis,nonlinear ARDL method is used to study the relationship between international oil price fluctuation and the consumer price index of APEC economies.First,on the basis of analyzing the actual situation in China,this thesis uses the ARDL long-term model and short-term dynamic model to explore the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the Chinese consumer price index,and then applies the ARDL model to21 APEC economies in order to explore the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the consumer price index more comprehensively.In order to make the analysis more accurate,this thesis also conducted systematic clustering and classification comparative analysis of APEC 21 economies according to the oil dependence.The ARDL method shows that the international oil price fluctuation has a less significant positive effect on the Chinese consumer price index.Through comparative analysis of the international oil price fluctuations on the APEC economy consumer price index found: the international oil price fluctuations on the consumer price index of an economy and an economy complete degree of industrial structure and oil resources abundance,the more complete an economy industrial structure,the more abundant oil resources,the international oil price fluctuations on the influence of the economy consumer price index.In addition,the fluctuation of international oil price in the economies with a relatively complete industrial structure has a lagging influence on their consumer price index,while the economies with a single industrial structure will be affected by the fluctuation of international oil price faster.