Study On Carbon Emissions Reduction Potential And Cost Of Low-carbon Technology In China’s Cement Industry

Achieving the goal of"carbon peak and carbon neutrality"is of great significance to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development.Cement industry is one of the key industries in China’s carbon emission reduction.In recent years,China has implemented a series of emission reduction policies to promote the low-carbon transformation of the cement industry,among them,promoting energy-saving and low-carbon technologies plays and will play a key role now and in the future.Based on this,this study thoroughly investigates the latest emission reduction technologies in China’s cement industry and systematically constructs a list of CO₂ emission reduction technologies in China’s cement industry.Based on the list,this paper analyses and studies the CO₂ emission reduction potential and energy saving effect of the Chinese cement industry in different scenario years,taking 2020 as the base scenario and 2025,2030 and 2035 as the future scenarios,and compares different technologies.In addition,the paper further calculates the cost of CO₂ emission reduction in the cement industry in China for different scenarios,and constructs the Mc Kinsey curve and marginal abatement cost curve respectively to explore the optimal abatement path for the cement industry.The results show that:（1）The average carbon reduction potential per unit of clinker of 17 CO₂ reduction technologies in the Chinese cement industry is21 kg/t,and the average reduction cost of each reduction technology is 124yuan/t CO₂.Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage（CCUS）technology has higher abatement cost.However,it also has greater potential for future abatement and should be given attention.（2）If all abatement technologies are adopted,the total abatement potential in 2020,2025,2030 and 2035 will be30.43,12.28,18.20 and 21.31 million tonnes respectively,with total abatement costs will be 10.3,39.6,8.74 and 10.34 billion yuan.The main factors affecting the effect of emission reduction are technology penetration and clinker production.Therefore,the cement industry should focus on the promotion of low-carbon emission reduction technologies and the optimization of industrial structure in the future.（3）The Mc Kinsey curve can help the Chinese cement industry to analyze the emission reduction effect of low-carbon emission reduction technologies and help cement companies to make technology choices.In addition,the marginal abatement cost curve in logarithmic form can better fit the changes in carbon abatement costs in the Chinese cement industry.This study systematically reviews the latest emission reduction technologies in China’s cement industry,quantitatively assesses the emission reduction potential and cost of each emission reduction technology,and provides ideas for determining the optimal emission reduction path,which is important for the cement industry to achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutral targets.