| In the context of the continuous integration of natural resources and the increasingly complex land use structure driven by social and economic development,the contradiction between economic development and ecological protection has become an inevitable requirement of rational land use planning.Overall consideration of sustainable land use goals such as ecological civilization,rural revitalization,urban-rural integration,and construction of a composite optimization system of land use structure and layout can effectively improve the scientific applicability of planning.Taking Luxi County of Jiangxi Province as the research area,this thesis analyzes the spatial-temporal change characteristics of land use in Luxi County from2010 to 2020,points out the existing problems,analyzes the impact of driving factors on land use,and sets four development scenarios,namely natural evolution,economic development priority,ecological protection priority and sustainable development,with the goal of improving economic and ecological benefits.MOP(Multi-objective Optimization)model was used to optimize the land use structure and coupled with FLUS model to optimize the land use layout under each scenario.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Woodland and cultivated land are the main land use types in Luxi County.From 2010 to 2020,all kinds of land use in Luxi County changed significantly.The area of cultivated land,other agricultural land,urban industrial and mining land,rural residential land,transportation land and other construction land increased,while the area of garden land,forest land,water area and unused land decreased.Among them,the area increased most for urban industrial and mining land,and the area decreased most for forest land.Other agricultural land,urban industrial and mining land,transportation land,and other construction land changed greatly.The biggest change was urban industrial and mining land,which reached 97.65%.The change rate of cultivated land was 0.35%.The comprehensive land use dynamic attitude of Luxi County from 2010 to 2020 was 0.156%,which belonged to very slow change type.The characteristics of land use in Luxi County include: the land use change in Luxi County over the years is relatively slow,the number of forestland is large,the urban construction land and the transportation land are rapidly expanded,and the cultivated land and forestland are the main sources of inflow of other land use types.It indicates that the contradiction between people and land in Luxi County is becoming more and more prominent,and the economic development has an urgent need for rapid development of infrastructure and improvement of urbanization level.(2)Based on the actual situation of Luxi County,12 driving factors including elevation,slope,slope direction,annual precipitation,annual temperature,night light,population density,GDP,distance from county government,distance from water,distance from highway and distance from railway are selected.The ROC values of cultivated land,garden land,other agricultural land,forest land,urban industrial and mining land,rural residential land,traffic land,other construction land,water area and unused land were 0.66,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.61,0.99,0.82,0.99,0.73,respectively,according to the binary Logistic regression analysis.The results showed that the simulated distribution of various types of land use in the regression model was in good agreement with the actual distribution,and the selection of driving factors was reasonable,which could be used as the driving factors of land use change in Luxi County for spatial simulation research.(3)Calculate the benefit coefficients of various regions in 2010 and 2020,use GM(1,1)model to predict the benefit coefficients of 2030,comprehensively consider the characteristics of land use change in Luxi County and related planning policies,set the constraint conditions of decision function,and solve the land use structure under the natural evolution scenario in2030 based on Markov chain.The land use structure under the scenario of economic development priority and ecological protection priority was solved based on genetic algorithm,and the land use structure under the scenario of sustainable development was solved based on NSGA-II algorithm.It was found that the economic benefit increased and the ecological benefit decreased under natural evolution and economic development priority.Under the ecological protection scenario,the economic benefit decreased while the ecological benefit increased.In the case of sustainable development,economic benefit and ecological benefit are increased.(4)Using FLUS model,based on the land use data of Luxi County in 2010 and 2020,the ANN module was used to extract the land suitability probability,and parameters were set based on the actual situation to verify and simulate the land use layout of Luxi County in 2020.The results showed that the kappa index was 0.913 and the overall accuracy was 0.958.Meet the requirements of simulation accuracy.Based on MOP and Markov chain,the optimization results of land use structure in each scenario were calculated and the spatial layout was optimized respectively.The results showed that the land use optimization scheme under the scenario of sustainable development may be the optimal solution for the future development of Luxi County.(5)According to the analysis of spatial-temporal changes of land use in Luxi County from2010 to 2020 and the results of multi-objective scenario simulation in 2030,four suggestions were put forward: protecting high-quality farmland and optimizing farmland layout;Pay attention to forest land protection,control forest land development scale;Economical and intensive use of construction land,optimize the layout of construction land;Develop the unused land rationally and increase the proportion of land flow. |
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