The Research On The Impact Of Digital Economy On China’s Provincial Carbon Emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions are posing a serious threat to the current global warming,in response to which China has proposed the "double carbon" goal of reaching the carbon peak by 2030 and striving for carbon neutralization by 2060.Achieving the "double carbon" goal is not only an urgent need to promote sustainable development and high-quality economic development,but also an urgent need to promote the harmonious coexistence of human and nature.In the context of pursuing the "double carbon" target,the production,life and social governance are constantly changing.The high-carbon and highenergy-consuming industries are in urgent need of transformation,and the digital economy has become an important support to achieve the "double carbon" target and promote high-quality economic development.The digital economy helps traditional industries transform digitally by virtue of new elements such as data flow and digital technology,and cultivates new industries by relying on new economic models such as online services,platform economy,intelligent economy and personal economy.Industrial digitization and digital industrialization complement each other to promote low-carbon and high-quality economic development.Grasping the significant historical opportunity of digital economy,empowering the digital low-carbon development of traditional industries,creating a new digital low-carbon industry,and breaking through the low-carbon development problem of digital infrastructure itself are the keys to the digital economy helping the "double carbon" goal.Therefore,it is necessary to further study the impact mechanism of the digital economy on China’s provincial carbon emissions,and find new dynamic energy and new engines to achieve the challenging "double carbon"goal.Based on the relevant theories of the digital economy and the environmental Kuznets curve theory,an analytical framework for the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions is formed.We discuss the direct,indirect,and spatial spillover effects of the digital economy on carbon emissions in China’s provinces.First of all,the evaluation index system of digital economy is constructed from the two dimensions of industrial digitalization and digital industrialization,measuring the comprehensive development index of digital economy from 2013 to 2019 in 30 provinces.Descriptively analyze the growth trend,growth magnitude,spatial distribution and regional differences of the digital economy development in China’s provinces and regions.Markov chains are used to measure the probability matrix of the level shift of digital economy development.We quantitatively summarize the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of digital economy development.The hierarchical maps of provincial carbon emissions are drawn to analyze the spatial layout,evolutionary trend of carbon emissions,and the global Moran index is measured to analyze the spatial correlation of carbon emissions.Then,the non-linear relationship between digital economy and carbon emissions is analyzed in the form of mathematical derivation,and the mechanism theory of direct impact,indirect impact,spatial spillover effect and regional heterogeneity of digital economy on carbon emissions is explained in detail.After that,we explore the direct effect of digital economy on China’s provincial carbon emissions with the help of two-way fixed-effects panel regression model,analyze the indirect effect of digital economy on China’s provincial carbon emissions from the perspectives of energy structure,technological innovation level and industrial structure upgrading using the mediating effect model,analyze the spatial spillover effect of digital economy on China’s provincial carbon emissions using the spatial Durbin model.And further carry out regional heterogeneity analysis and We further carry out regional heterogeneity analysis and robustness test,and use instrumental variables for two-stage regression to alleviate the endogeneity problem.The main research results include:(1)The overall growth trend of China’s digital economy is obvious,but the growth rate becomes slower.Relatively speaking,the growth rate of the central is the fastest,while the annual growth rate in the east is the slowest,and the growth rate in the west is closer to the east.The development of digital economy in the east tops the list,followed by the central and the northeast,and the development level in the west is the weakest.The development level of digital economy in economically developed regions is far higher than that in underdeveloped regions,but the growth trend of digital economy in underdeveloped regions is weak,and the phenomenon of"digital divide" is becoming increasingly serious.(2)The stability of the development level of the digital economy is affected by the development level of the digital economy in neighboring regions.When high-level types border on low-level types,high-level types promote the evolution of low-level types to a higher level.When low-level types border each other,the two may mutually inhibit the development of the digital economy.At the same time,regardless of whether the development level of the digital economy in neighboring regions is considered,the development of the digital economy has continuity.(3)The carbon emissions in northern are significantly higher than those in southern in China,while those in eastern are higher than those in western in China.The carbon emissions of high carbon provinces have an obvious upward trend,but the carbon emissions of low carbon provinces are in a slow decline stage,and the carbon emissions have a significant "path dependence".At the same time,provincial carbon emissions have significant spatial autocorrelation,and neighboring regions have a positive impact on each other.(4)The digital economy has a significant direct impact on China’s carbon emissions.The relationship between the two is an inverted "U" type of nonlinear relationship.The digital economy first stimulates carbon emissions at a marginal decreasing rate and then curbs them at a marginal increasing rate.From the regional perspective,the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions in the eastern and central regions presents an inverted "U"trajectory.The impact of digital economy on carbon emissions in western China presents an inverted "N" trajectory.(5)The digital economy realizes carbon emission reduction by optimizing the energy structure,improving the level of technological innovation and promoting the rationalization of the industrial structure.Among them,the impact of the development of digital economy on the energy structure has an inverted "U" shape.The impact of the digital economy on the upgrading of industrial structure is significant,but the digital economy cannot achieve the carbon emission reduction goal by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure.(6)The impact of digital economy on carbon emissions has a significant spatial spillover effect,showing an inverted "U" trajectory.Compared with the direct effect,the spatial spillover effect of digital economy on carbon emissions is more significant.Finally,based on the research conclusions,we propose the policy recommendations from four aspects:focusing on the low-carbon development of digital technology and infrastructure,formulating low-carbon development strategies for the digital economy that are tailored to local conditions,driving the technological and structural effects of the digital economy to help reduce carbon emissions,and promoting the coordinated development of the provincial digital economy.