Research On Urban Road Traffic Risk Identification And Coupling Method

With the expansion of urban road networks and the increase in the number of motor vehicles,the traffic flow on urban roads is growing rapidly,and the number of road traffic accidents is also on the rise every year.Therefore,how to effectively improve road safety and reduce the occurrence of traffic safety accidents has become a pressing problem for the traffic management department to solve.The urban traffic safety system is a complex dynamic system with many risk factors affecting traffic safety,and the impact of multiple factors on traffic safety is not simply a single superposition of factors,but usually a complex coupling process of multiple factors.How to accurately identify the risk factors of urban road traffic accidents and explore the coupling relationship between the risk factors in urban road traffic accidents is of great significance to the study of urban road traffic safety.Therefore,this paper analyses and studies some key theories and methods in urban road traffic risk identification and coupling mechanism as follows:Firstly,on the basis of the traditional risk definition,this paper identifies and analyzes the risk factors of urban road traffic accidents,determines the four risk factors based on people,roads,vehicles and traffic environment,and analyzes the sub-factors of these different risk factors one by one.This paper puts forward the meaning of urban road traffic accident risk and the generation mechanism and theory of risk coupling,and divides risk coupling into categories according to the number of road traffic accident risk coupling,so as to enrich the theoretical framework of risk coupling.Secondly,uses the traffic accident data from a city in Shandong Province from2018-2020,pre-processes the raw accident data for feature data and correlation analysis.Based on the analysis of raw data quality issues,duplicate data,missing data and unstructured data were pre-processed.Twenty-one factors were selected as independent variables from the four risk factors of driver,vehicle,road and environment,and the severity of traffic accidents as dependent variables,and passed the covariance test and parallelism test.Build orderly classification Logit model,identify the driving experience,gender,culture degree,drunk driving,overload,road lines,lighting conditions,roadside protective nine child risk factors affecting traffic accident severity.Finally,uses risk coupling theory,an N-K-based coupled model of urban road traffic safety risks was established.The entropy weight method and fuzzy consistency matrix are introduced into the traditional N-K coupling model,and the traditional N-K coupling model is improved by calculating the weights of different traffic accident levels as the corresponding coefficients of risk coupling.Through the established risk coupling model,the magnitude of the coupling effect between people,vehicles,roads and the environment is verified by using actual data,and the mutual influence and coupling effect between various risk factors is objectively analysed to summarise the risk coupling law of urban road traffic safety.The results show that the greater the number of coupled risk factors,the greater the risk of traffic accidents,which is basically consistent with the actual traffic safety accident situation.The greater the proportion of human factors in the causes of accidents,the higher the coupled risk.Therefore,it is important to minimise the coupling probability of traffic accident causes and to pay attention to the cultivation of traffic safety awareness among travellers in order to improve traffic safety management.