Research On Influencing Factors And Paths Of Carbon Emissions From Existing Buildings In Henan Under The Dual Carbon Goal

With the international community’s increasing attention to the rapid growth of carbon emissions,countries began to announce their own carbon reduction targets and measures.In2020,China proposed the“Carbon emissions peak and Carbon neutrality”target,showing our country’s firm determination to reduce carbon emissions.In recent years,the booming construction industry in Henan,on one hand,which had greatly stimulated the rapid growth of the local economy,on the other hand,which had brought the Henan people a big change in the living environment.However,Mainly the existing building industry still needs to burn a large amount of fossil energy during the building operation stage,and the problem of CO₂emission needs to be solved urgently.Based on a large amount of energy consumption information of existing buildings in Henan province,this study calculates the carbon emission quantity and carbon emission intensity,establishes the carbon emission influence factor model,and utilizes the renewable energy technology,in order to help the implementation of carbon reduction and emission reduction of existing buildings in Henan province,the paper analyzes the factors and paths of carbon emission of existing buildings.The conclusions were as follows:（1）By collecting the energy consumption of existing buildings in Henan province in2020,the carbon emission of existing residential buildings in Henan province was 34,133,700tons,and that of existing public buildings in Henan province was 37,783,600 tons,the carbon emission intensity of the existing residential building,the existing public building,the existing residential building power and the existing public building power are estimated,the carbon emission intensity of central heating in existing buildings fluctuates greatly.（2）According to the carbon emission of the existing buildings in Henan province,combined with the data of China and Henan Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2020,STIRPAT model is adopted,four models of heat for existing residential buildings,heat for existing public buildings,electricity for existing residential buildings and electricity for existing public buildings are constructed and analyzed.It is found that the elastic coefficients of the four models are:urban permanent population（0.429）>urban per capita consumption expenditure（0.195）;urban permanent population（0.418）> Carbon emission from residential electricity（0.303）;urban permanent population（1.434）>.Carbon emission intensity from public central heating（0.158）;carbon emission from public power（0.379）>.Carbon emission from public central heating（0.113）.（3）To analyze the uncertainty of the above six key factors and calculate their contribution rate,and the existing buildings are constrained by the elasticity coefficient and the carbon emission of urban population and public buildings in Henan province.（4）In order to achieve the dual carbon target,the authors summarized the predicted scenario factors and analyzed the baseline scenario and the peak carbon neutrality scenario,assuming that the population would continue to decline after 2021,carbon emissions from existing homes peaked at 43,544,200 tonnes from the 2021.Assuming that 15%of existing public rooftops will be photovoltaic in 2021-2030 and 85%in 2031-2060,irrespective of the carbon emissions from central heating,carbon emissions from public power could peak in2021 and become carbon neutral by 2060,reaching 51,007,900 tonnes.From 2021 to 2030,the carbon emission intensity of public power in Henan province decreased by an average of8.35 kg/m²annually;from 2031 to 2060,the carbon emission intensity of public power in Henan province decreased by an average of 68.58 kg/m²annually.The state and social organizations have taken many measures to limit the carbon dioxide emissions from the construction industry,especially the carbon emission targets for new buildings announced in recent years,which have become effective weapons to curb excessive carbon emissions from the construction industry,however,due to the rapid development of the construction industry in Henan province,the existing buildings have formed the main industrial structure,it provides more theoretical basis for realizing the index prediction and consultation of double carbon target.