China’s Natural Gas Import Security Assessment And Scenario Prediction

With the gradual promotion of clean energy consumption,China’s natural gas consumption reached 304 billion cubic meters in 2019,with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%.The import volume of natural gas increased by 9.4%,and the external dependence reached45.2%.China has become the world’s largest natural gas importer.However,China’s influence in the international natural gas market are limited.Price constraints,uncertainty of suppliers,import dependence,maritime conflicts and other factors pose a huge threat to China’s natural gas import security.Natural gas import security has become an increasingly important issue in China.In this paper,theoretical and empirical,qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are used to study China’s natural gas import security assessment and scenario prediction.Firstly,according to the current situation of China’s natural gas imports and the statistics of natural gas exporting countries in BP energy statistical yearbook,this paper systematically summarizes the current situation of natural gas markets at home and abroad,as well as the main opportunities and challenges faced by China’s natural gas imports.Then define the connotation of natural gas import security,focus on the introduction of political security and transportation security indicators,design a comprehensive natural gas import security risk evaluation index system.After comparative analysis of various evaluation methods,an improved matter-element extension model is constructed.With the help of various data of natural gas suppliers and China’s natural gas import data for objective weighting,the evaluation model is used to depict the historical evolution law of China’s natural gas import security.It is found that China’s natural gas import is gradually moving from a safe zone to an unsafe zone,but there is a good trend in the future.Finally,on this basis,the PSO-SVM model is used to establish the natural gas import security prediction model,and three scenarios are set to analyze the natural gas import security situation of China in future.It is found that different natural gas import scenarios and market conditions can significantly affect the development of China’s natural gas import security;the natural gas import security index in 2025 and 2030 is also different under different development scenarios.Countermeasures should be taken in China from the aspects of developing natural gas diplomacy,optimizing natural gas import sources,developing big country game to reduce import cost,so as to guarantee the sustainability and stability of natural gas supply in China.